Recent major outages have shaped trader views on the likelihood of another critical GitHub.com incident. The August 17 event, lasting nearly eight hours and hitting web UI, APIs, Actions, authentication, and pull requests due to Central US load-balancer saturation and autoscaling failures under peak AI-driven traffic, followed a similar Actions disruption on August 6. GitHub’s status page has logged additional degraded services into late August, including database and Copilot-related issues, while leadership publicly cited scaling weaknesses and retry storms amplified by VS Code clients. Traders are pricing in continued pressure from surging Copilot and enterprise workloads ahead of any architectural fixes, with the market excluding standalone Copilot model-provider problems. Ongoing monitoring of githubstatus.com for “critical” classifications remains the key near-term catalyst.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКритический инцидент на GitHub.com от...?
Критический инцидент на GitHub.com от...?
НОВОЕ
15 сент. 2026 г.
15 сентября
57%
30 сентября
68%
$0.00 Объем
15 сентября
$0 Объем
57%
30 сентября
$0 Объем
68%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent major outages have shaped trader views on the likelihood of another critical GitHub.com incident. The August 17 event, lasting nearly eight hours and hitting web UI, APIs, Actions, authentication, and pull requests due to Central US load-balancer saturation and autoscaling failures under peak AI-driven traffic, followed a similar Actions disruption on August 6. GitHub’s status page has logged additional degraded services into late August, including database and Copilot-related issues, while leadership publicly cited scaling weaknesses and retry storms amplified by VS Code clients. Traders are pricing in continued pressure from surging Copilot and enterprise workloads ahead of any architectural fixes, with the market excluding standalone Copilot model-provider problems. Ongoing monitoring of githubstatus.com for “critical” classifications remains the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 27, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 6:50 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.githubstatus.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent major outages have shaped trader views on the likelihood of another critical GitHub.com incident. The August 17 event, lasting nearly eight hours and hitting web UI, APIs, Actions, authentication, and pull requests due to Central US load-balancer saturation and autoscaling failures under peak AI-driven traffic, followed a similar Actions disruption on August 6. GitHub’s status page has logged additional degraded services into late August, including database and Copilot-related issues, while leadership publicly cited scaling weaknesses and retry storms amplified by VS Code clients. Traders are pricing in continued pressure from surging Copilot and enterprise workloads ahead of any architectural fixes, with the market excluding standalone Copilot model-provider problems. Ongoing monitoring of githubstatus.com for “critical” classifications remains the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 6:50 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.githubstatus.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent major outages have shaped trader views on the likelihood of another critical GitHub.com incident. The August 17 event, lasting nearly eight hours and hitting web UI, APIs, Actions, authentication, and pull requests due to Central US load-balancer saturation and autoscaling failures under peak AI-driven traffic, followed a similar Actions disruption on August 6. GitHub’s status page has logged additional degraded services into late August, including database and Copilot-related issues, while leadership publicly cited scaling weaknesses and retry storms amplified by VS Code clients. Traders are pricing in continued pressure from surging Copilot and enterprise workloads ahead of any architectural fixes, with the market excluding standalone Copilot model-provider problems. Ongoing monitoring of githubstatus.com for “critical” classifications remains the key near-term catalyst.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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