xAI's rapid iteration cycle, highlighted by Elon Musk's July 28–30 statements targeting an early August launch for the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6, drives current trader sentiment. Following the mid-July release of Grok 4.5—xAI's strongest model to date, optimized for coding, agentic workflows, and knowledge tasks via enhanced post-training—the 4.6 variant reuses the same V9 foundation but adds refined supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning for further gains without major scale increases. This positions it to compete directly with models like Claude Opus 4.8 while maintaining efficiency advantages. Traders monitor official xAI announcements, API availability, and benchmark updates for confirmation, with Musk's history of meeting or slightly adjusting such timelines creating a narrow window for resolution around the stated August 7 target amid ongoing competition in frontier AI capabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоGrok 4.6 выпущено...?
Grok 4.6 выпущено...?
НОВОЕ
$35,690 Объем
7 авг. 2026 г.
7 августа
8%
14 августа
86%
$35,690 Объем
7 августа
$20,703 Объем
8%
14 августа
$14,993 Объем
86%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's rapid iteration cycle, highlighted by Elon Musk's July 28–30 statements targeting an early August launch for the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6, drives current trader sentiment. Following the mid-July release of Grok 4.5—xAI's strongest model to date, optimized for coding, agentic workflows, and knowledge tasks via enhanced post-training—the 4.6 variant reuses the same V9 foundation but adds refined supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning for further gains without major scale increases. This positions it to compete directly with models like Claude Opus 4.8 while maintaining efficiency advantages. Traders monitor official xAI announcements, API availability, and benchmark updates for confirmation, with Musk's history of meeting or slightly adjusting such timelines creating a narrow window for resolution around the stated August 7 target amid ongoing competition in frontier AI capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Объем
$35,690Дата окончания
14 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's rapid iteration cycle, highlighted by Elon Musk's July 28–30 statements targeting an early August launch for the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6, drives current trader sentiment. Following the mid-July release of Grok 4.5—xAI's strongest model to date, optimized for coding, agentic workflows, and knowledge tasks via enhanced post-training—the 4.6 variant reuses the same V9 foundation but adds refined supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning for further gains without major scale increases. This positions it to compete directly with models like Claude Opus 4.8 while maintaining efficiency advantages. Traders monitor official xAI announcements, API availability, and benchmark updates for confirmation, with Musk's history of meeting or slightly adjusting such timelines creating a narrow window for resolution around the stated August 7 target amid ongoing competition in frontier AI capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$35,690Дата окончания
14 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's rapid iteration cycle, highlighted by Elon Musk's July 28–30 statements targeting an early August launch for the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6, drives current trader sentiment. Following the mid-July release of Grok 4.5—xAI's strongest model to date, optimized for coding, agentic workflows, and knowledge tasks via enhanced post-training—the 4.6 variant reuses the same V9 foundation but adds refined supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning for further gains without major scale increases. This positions it to compete directly with models like Claude Opus 4.8 while maintaining efficiency advantages. Traders monitor official xAI announcements, API availability, and benchmark updates for confirmation, with Musk's history of meeting or slightly adjusting such timelines creating a narrow window for resolution around the stated August 7 target amid ongoing competition in frontier AI capabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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