**xAI’s rapid iteration cadence and direct Arena participation continue to shape expectations around the next Grok model’s Text Arena (LMArena/LMSYS Chatbot Arena) entry.** Grok 4.5 launched July 16, 2026, as the lab’s strongest model for coding and agentic work, following Grok 4 (July 2025) and multiple 4.x point releases that quickly appeared on the leaderboard. Earlier variants such as Grok 4.1 (thinking) and 4.20 beta reached #1 or top-3 Elo positions within days or weeks of internal previews, often via anonymous testing before official rollout. Competitive dynamics favor quick debuts: xAI routinely partners with or monitors Arena evaluations, leverages real-time X data advantages, and uses frequent minor updates (sometimes twice weekly) to maintain leaderboard visibility against Claude, GPT-5 variants, and Gemini. Historical patterns show most major or “thinking” releases enter the text leaderboard promptly after internal validation, though exact timing can shift with API or app rollouts. Upcoming catalysts include any Grok 5 preview, additional 4.5 variants, or developer announcements that typically precede Arena visibility. Traders weigh this established speed-to-leaderboard track record against the possibility of delayed or selective releases for newer frontier models.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСледующая модель Grok: дебют на текстовой арене?
Следующая модель Grok: дебют на текстовой арене?
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
1440+
89%
1450+
88%
1460+
62%
1470+
40%
1480+
22%
$665 Объем
1440+
$80 Объем
89%
1450+
$403 Объем
88%
1460+
$20 Объем
62%
1470+
$162 Объем
40%
1480+
$0 Объем
22%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**xAI’s rapid iteration cadence and direct Arena participation continue to shape expectations around the next Grok model’s Text Arena (LMArena/LMSYS Chatbot Arena) entry.** Grok 4.5 launched July 16, 2026, as the lab’s strongest model for coding and agentic work, following Grok 4 (July 2025) and multiple 4.x point releases that quickly appeared on the leaderboard. Earlier variants such as Grok 4.1 (thinking) and 4.20 beta reached #1 or top-3 Elo positions within days or weeks of internal previews, often via anonymous testing before official rollout.
Competitive dynamics favor quick debuts: xAI routinely partners with or monitors Arena evaluations, leverages real-time X data advantages, and uses frequent minor updates (sometimes twice weekly) to maintain leaderboard visibility against Claude, GPT-5 variants, and Gemini. Historical patterns show most major or “thinking” releases enter the text leaderboard promptly after internal validation, though exact timing can shift with API or app rollouts. Upcoming catalysts include any Grok 5 preview, additional 4.5 variants, or developer announcements that typically precede Arena visibility. Traders weigh this established speed-to-leaderboard track record against the possibility of delayed or selective releases for newer frontier models.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Aug 4, 2026, 7:57 PM ET
Объем
$665Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 7:57 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**xAI’s rapid iteration cadence and direct Arena participation continue to shape expectations around the next Grok model’s Text Arena (LMArena/LMSYS Chatbot Arena) entry.** Grok 4.5 launched July 16, 2026, as the lab’s strongest model for coding and agentic work, following Grok 4 (July 2025) and multiple 4.x point releases that quickly appeared on the leaderboard. Earlier variants such as Grok 4.1 (thinking) and 4.20 beta reached #1 or top-3 Elo positions within days or weeks of internal previews, often via anonymous testing before official rollout.
Competitive dynamics favor quick debuts: xAI routinely partners with or monitors Arena evaluations, leverages real-time X data advantages, and uses frequent minor updates (sometimes twice weekly) to maintain leaderboard visibility against Claude, GPT-5 variants, and Gemini. Historical patterns show most major or “thinking” releases enter the text leaderboard promptly after internal validation, though exact timing can shift with API or app rollouts. Upcoming catalysts include any Grok 5 preview, additional 4.5 variants, or developer announcements that typically precede Arena visibility. Traders weigh this established speed-to-leaderboard track record against the possibility of delayed or selective releases for newer frontier models.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$665Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 7:57 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x65070BE91...**xAI’s rapid iteration cadence and direct Arena participation continue to shape expectations around the next Grok model’s Text Arena (LMArena/LMSYS Chatbot Arena) entry.** Grok 4.5 launched July 16, 2026, as the lab’s strongest model for coding and agentic work, following Grok 4 (July 2025) and multiple 4.x point releases that quickly appeared on the leaderboard. Earlier variants such as Grok 4.1 (thinking) and 4.20 beta reached #1 or top-3 Elo positions within days or weeks of internal previews, often via anonymous testing before official rollout. Competitive dynamics favor quick debuts: xAI routinely partners with or monitors Arena evaluations, leverages real-time X data advantages, and uses frequent minor updates (sometimes twice weekly) to maintain leaderboard visibility against Claude, GPT-5 variants, and Gemini. Historical patterns show most major or “thinking” releases enter the text leaderboard promptly after internal validation, though exact timing can shift with API or app rollouts. Upcoming catalysts include any Grok 5 preview, additional 4.5 variants, or developer announcements that typically precede Arena visibility. Traders weigh this established speed-to-leaderboard track record against the possibility of delayed or selective releases for newer frontier models.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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