Google DeepMind’s consistent Gemini model family performance on arena.ai Text Arena leaderboards, including strong results in coding, agentic, and multimodal benchmarks, drives the 79% market-implied odds for second-best AI lab by end-September. Recent early-September releases such as Gemini 3.8 Flash and Gemini 3.8 Live variants have sustained competitive positioning amid rapid frontier advances from Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra. Google’s ecosystem scale, TPU compute advantages, and August confirmation as the prior period’s second-place lab reinforce trader consensus, while other labs face greater uncertainty from safety pauses, open-weight competition, and narrower leadership in aggregate lab rankings. Key catalysts remain the final two weeks of September model updates and leaderboard shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоSecond-best AI Lab end of September?
Second-best AI Lab end of September?
Google 79%
Meta 15.0%
OpenAI 2.5%
Alibaba 2.4%
$101,586 Объем
$101,586 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
79%
Meta
9%
OpenAI
3%
Alibaba
2%
Anthropic
2%
Moonshot
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 79%
Meta 15.0%
OpenAI 2.5%
Alibaba 2.4%
$101,586 Объем
$101,586 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
$29,784 Объем
79%
Meta
$13,182 Объем
9%
OpenAI
$8,040 Объем
3%
Alibaba
$14,435 Объем
2%
Anthropic
$5,394 Объем
2%
Moonshot
$3,852 Объем
2%
SpaceXAI
$3,849 Объем
1%
DeepSeek
$2,882 Объем
1%
Z.ai
$3,751 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$2,172 Объем
<1%
Xiaomi
$2,533 Объем
<1%
Thinky
$1,413 Объем
<1%
Amazon
$534 Объем
<1%
ByteDance
$1,128 Объем
<1%
Nvidia
$1,430 Объем
<1%
MiniMax
$1,452 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$1,442 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$1,024 Объем
<1%
Tencent
$1,507 Объем
<1%
StepFun
$477 Объем
<1%
Microsoft
$1,306 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google DeepMind’s consistent Gemini model family performance on arena.ai Text Arena leaderboards, including strong results in coding, agentic, and multimodal benchmarks, drives the 79% market-implied odds for second-best AI lab by end-September. Recent early-September releases such as Gemini 3.8 Flash and Gemini 3.8 Live variants have sustained competitive positioning amid rapid frontier advances from Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra. Google’s ecosystem scale, TPU compute advantages, and August confirmation as the prior period’s second-place lab reinforce trader consensus, while other labs face greater uncertainty from safety pauses, open-weight competition, and narrower leadership in aggregate lab rankings. Key catalysts remain the final two weeks of September model updates and leaderboard shifts.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Объем
$101,586Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google DeepMind’s consistent Gemini model family performance on arena.ai Text Arena leaderboards, including strong results in coding, agentic, and multimodal benchmarks, drives the 79% market-implied odds for second-best AI lab by end-September. Recent early-September releases such as Gemini 3.8 Flash and Gemini 3.8 Live variants have sustained competitive positioning amid rapid frontier advances from Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra. Google’s ecosystem scale, TPU compute advantages, and August confirmation as the prior period’s second-place lab reinforce trader consensus, while other labs face greater uncertainty from safety pauses, open-weight competition, and narrower leadership in aggregate lab rankings. Key catalysts remain the final two weeks of September model updates and leaderboard shifts.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Объем
$101,586Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Google DeepMind’s consistent Gemini model family performance on arena.ai Text Arena leaderboards, including strong results in coding, agentic, and multimodal benchmarks, drives the 79% market-implied odds for second-best AI lab by end-September. Recent early-September releases such as Gemini 3.8 Flash and Gemini 3.8 Live variants have sustained competitive positioning amid rapid frontier advances from Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra. Google’s ecosystem scale, TPU compute advantages, and August confirmation as the prior period’s second-place lab reinforce trader consensus, while other labs face greater uncertainty from safety pauses, open-weight competition, and narrower leadership in aggregate lab rankings. Key catalysts remain the final two weeks of September model updates and leaderboard shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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