Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 release and ongoing infrastructure ramp, including in-house MTIA chips entering production and major data center builds, underpin the 83% implied probability for the lab claiming the #2 ranking by end of September on style-controlled arena leaderboards. These updates enhance multimodal reasoning, agentic capabilities, and persona consistency in evaluations, outpacing slower-moving Western and Chinese competitors amid a tight frontier race led by Anthropic and OpenAI models. With resolution days away, trader consensus reflects Meta's compute advantage and applied AI engineering focus, though last-minute benchmark shifts or unannounced updates from rivals could still alter outcomes before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено#2 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
#2 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
Meta 85%
Google 9.8%
Anthropic 3.6%
OpenAI 3.0%
$89,137 Объем
$89,137 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Meta
85%
10%
Anthropic
4%
OpenAI
3%
Moonshot
1%
MiniMax
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 85%
Google 9.8%
Anthropic 3.6%
OpenAI 3.0%
$89,137 Объем
$89,137 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Meta
$30,091 Объем
85%
$11,525 Объем
10%
Anthropic
$4,676 Объем
4%
OpenAI
$16,224 Объем
3%
Moonshot
$2,413 Объем
1%
MiniMax
$1,723 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$2,678 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$5,263 Объем
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,647 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$1,535 Объем
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,795 Объем
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,409 Объем
<1%
ByteDance
$1,261 Объем
<1%
Thinky
$645 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$1,538 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$460 Объем
<1%
Amazon
$820 Объем
<1%
Nvidia
$665 Объем
<1%
Tencent
$733 Объем
<1%
StepFun
$1,211 Объем
<1%
Microsoft
$831 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 release and ongoing infrastructure ramp, including in-house MTIA chips entering production and major data center builds, underpin the 83% implied probability for the lab claiming the #2 ranking by end of September on style-controlled arena leaderboards. These updates enhance multimodal reasoning, agentic capabilities, and persona consistency in evaluations, outpacing slower-moving Western and Chinese competitors amid a tight frontier race led by Anthropic and OpenAI models. With resolution days away, trader consensus reflects Meta's compute advantage and applied AI engineering focus, though last-minute benchmark shifts or unannounced updates from rivals could still alter outcomes before the deadline.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Объем
$89,137Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 release and ongoing infrastructure ramp, including in-house MTIA chips entering production and major data center builds, underpin the 83% implied probability for the lab claiming the #2 ranking by end of September on style-controlled arena leaderboards. These updates enhance multimodal reasoning, agentic capabilities, and persona consistency in evaluations, outpacing slower-moving Western and Chinese competitors amid a tight frontier race led by Anthropic and OpenAI models. With resolution days away, trader consensus reflects Meta's compute advantage and applied AI engineering focus, though last-minute benchmark shifts or unannounced updates from rivals could still alter outcomes before the deadline.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Объем
$89,137Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 release and ongoing infrastructure ramp, including in-house MTIA chips entering production and major data center builds, underpin the 83% implied probability for the lab claiming the #2 ranking by end of September on style-controlled arena leaderboards. These updates enhance multimodal reasoning, agentic capabilities, and persona consistency in evaluations, outpacing slower-moving Western and Chinese competitors amid a tight frontier race led by Anthropic and OpenAI models. With resolution days away, trader consensus reflects Meta's compute advantage and applied AI engineering focus, though last-minute benchmark shifts or unannounced updates from rivals could still alter outcomes before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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