Google's rapid September 2026 releases of Gemini 3.8 Flash, 3.8 Live with extended thinking, AlphaGenome Atlas, and WeatherNext 3 have driven trader consensus toward an implied 79.5% probability that it finishes third on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (style control on) among labs by month-end. These updates emphasize real-time voice agents, genomics-scale prediction, and specialized forecasting, strengthening Google's enterprise and research positioning relative to frontrunners Anthropic and OpenAI. Chinese labs and Meta trail at lower odds amid fewer comparable late-month gains, while the market reflects uncertainty around final benchmark snapshots and any last-minute capability shifts before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено#3 Лаборатория ИИ в конце сентября? (Управление стилем включено)
#3 Лаборатория ИИ в конце сентября? (Управление стилем включено)
Google 82%
Meta 13%
OpenAI 2.5%
Moonshot 1.5%
$113,112 Объем
$113,112 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
82%
Meta
13%
OpenAI
3%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 82%
Meta 13%
OpenAI 2.5%
Moonshot 1.5%
$113,112 Объем
$113,112 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
$20,969 Объем
82%
Meta
$29,225 Объем
13%
OpenAI
$4,822 Объем
3%
Moonshot
$3,645 Объем
2%
Alibaba
$9,933 Объем
1%
Z.ai
$2,459 Объем
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,935 Объем
1%
Baidu
$2,029 Объем
1%
ByteDance
$2,692 Объем
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,337 Объем
<1%
Anthropic
$21,169 Объем
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,149 Объем
<1%
MiniMax
$1,514 Объем
<1%
Thinky
$1,992 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$799 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$1,570 Объем
<1%
Amazon
$480 Объем
<1%
Nvidia
$659 Объем
<1%
Tencent
$1,902 Объем
<1%
StepFun
$700 Объем
<1%
Microsoft
$1,134 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's rapid September 2026 releases of Gemini 3.8 Flash, 3.8 Live with extended thinking, AlphaGenome Atlas, and WeatherNext 3 have driven trader consensus toward an implied 79.5% probability that it finishes third on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (style control on) among labs by month-end. These updates emphasize real-time voice agents, genomics-scale prediction, and specialized forecasting, strengthening Google's enterprise and research positioning relative to frontrunners Anthropic and OpenAI. Chinese labs and Meta trail at lower odds amid fewer comparable late-month gains, while the market reflects uncertainty around final benchmark snapshots and any last-minute capability shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Объем
$113,112Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's rapid September 2026 releases of Gemini 3.8 Flash, 3.8 Live with extended thinking, AlphaGenome Atlas, and WeatherNext 3 have driven trader consensus toward an implied 79.5% probability that it finishes third on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (style control on) among labs by month-end. These updates emphasize real-time voice agents, genomics-scale prediction, and specialized forecasting, strengthening Google's enterprise and research positioning relative to frontrunners Anthropic and OpenAI. Chinese labs and Meta trail at lower odds amid fewer comparable late-month gains, while the market reflects uncertainty around final benchmark snapshots and any last-minute capability shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Объем
$113,112Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Google's rapid September 2026 releases of Gemini 3.8 Flash, 3.8 Live with extended thinking, AlphaGenome Atlas, and WeatherNext 3 have driven trader consensus toward an implied 79.5% probability that it finishes third on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (style control on) among labs by month-end. These updates emphasize real-time voice agents, genomics-scale prediction, and specialized forecasting, strengthening Google's enterprise and research positioning relative to frontrunners Anthropic and OpenAI. Chinese labs and Meta trail at lower odds amid fewer comparable late-month gains, while the market reflects uncertainty around final benchmark snapshots and any last-minute capability shifts before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы