Meta's dominant 88% implied probability reflects traders' view that its open-source Llama series maintains strong competitive positioning against closed leaders like OpenAI and Google through broad developer adoption and benchmark parity on key capabilities. Recent model updates and ecosystem momentum have reinforced this consensus, while lower odds for Google, Anthropic, and others indicate market sentiment that those labs occupy the top two spots. With resolution imminent at month-end, limited new announcements in the past week have left the ranking stable, though any surprise capability leap or regulatory shift could still alter the final ordering.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоThird-best AI Lab end of September?
Meta 88.3%
Google 6%
Alibaba 2.8%
Moonshot 2.1%
$92,769 Объем
$92,769 Объем

Meta
88%

6%

Alibaba
3%

Moonshot
2%

Z.ai
1%

SpaceXAI
1%

Baidu
1%

Xiaomi
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Anthropic
<1%

OpenAI
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

Thinky
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Tencent
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Meta 88.3%
Google 6%
Alibaba 2.8%
Moonshot 2.1%
$92,769 Объем
$92,769 Объем

Meta
88%

6%

Alibaba
3%

Moonshot
2%

Z.ai
1%

SpaceXAI
1%

Baidu
1%

Xiaomi
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Anthropic
<1%

OpenAI
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

Thinky
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Tencent
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Источник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Meta's dominant 88% implied probability reflects traders' view that its open-source Llama series maintains strong competitive positioning against closed leaders like OpenAI and Google through broad developer adoption and benchmark parity on key capabilities. Recent model updates and ecosystem momentum have reinforced this consensus, while lower odds for Google, Anthropic, and others indicate market sentiment that those labs occupy the top two spots. With resolution imminent at month-end, limited new announcements in the past week have left the ranking stable, though any surprise capability leap or regulatory shift could still alter the final ordering.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы