Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, featuring native multimodal support, a 1M-token context window, and Agent Swarm orchestration for up to 300 parallel sub-agents, has driven its 80.7% implied probability as the third-best AI agent lab by September 30. The open-weight model has posted competitive results on agent benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp, and coding arenas, narrowing the gap with closed U.S. systems while attracting developer adoption through lower-cost inference and tools like Kimi Code. Traders view this combination of demonstrated long-horizon agentic performance and rapid iteration as the decisive factor over labs like Meta, DeepSeek, or Anthropic, whose recent releases have not shifted relative standings as sharply. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard in two weeks, fresh benchmark updates or model refreshes could still alter the final ranking.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоТретья лучшая лаборатория ИИ-агентов в конце сентября?
Третья лучшая лаборатория ИИ-агентов в конце сентября?
Moonshot 80.7%
Z.ai 5.4%
DeepSeek 5.1%
SpaceXAI 4.1%
$48,207 Объем
$48,207 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Moonshot
81%
Z.ai
5%
DeepSeek
5%
SpaceXAI
4%
3%
Alibaba
3%
Anthropic
3%
Mistral
3%
Meta
6%
OpenAI
2%
Nvidia
1%
Amazon
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Baidu
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 80.7%
Z.ai 5.4%
DeepSeek 5.1%
SpaceXAI 4.1%
$48,207 Объем
$48,207 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Moonshot
$29,179 Объем
81%
Z.ai
$2,787 Объем
5%
DeepSeek
$461 Объем
5%
SpaceXAI
$563 Объем
4%
$472 Объем
3%
Alibaba
$1,077 Объем
3%
Anthropic
$2,449 Объем
3%
Mistral
$590 Объем
3%
Meta
$387 Объем
6%
OpenAI
$7,061 Объем
2%
Nvidia
$460 Объем
1%
Amazon
$387 Объем
1%
Xiaomi
$353 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$549 Объем
<1%
MiniMax
$363 Объем
<1%
ByteDance
$383 Объем
<1%
Microsoft
$368 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$318 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, featuring native multimodal support, a 1M-token context window, and Agent Swarm orchestration for up to 300 parallel sub-agents, has driven its 80.7% implied probability as the third-best AI agent lab by September 30. The open-weight model has posted competitive results on agent benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp, and coding arenas, narrowing the gap with closed U.S. systems while attracting developer adoption through lower-cost inference and tools like Kimi Code. Traders view this combination of demonstrated long-horizon agentic performance and rapid iteration as the decisive factor over labs like Meta, DeepSeek, or Anthropic, whose recent releases have not shifted relative standings as sharply. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard in two weeks, fresh benchmark updates or model refreshes could still alter the final ranking.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Открытие рынка: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Объем
$48,207Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, featuring native multimodal support, a 1M-token context window, and Agent Swarm orchestration for up to 300 parallel sub-agents, has driven its 80.7% implied probability as the third-best AI agent lab by September 30. The open-weight model has posted competitive results on agent benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp, and coding arenas, narrowing the gap with closed U.S. systems while attracting developer adoption through lower-cost inference and tools like Kimi Code. Traders view this combination of demonstrated long-horizon agentic performance and rapid iteration as the decisive factor over labs like Meta, DeepSeek, or Anthropic, whose recent releases have not shifted relative standings as sharply. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard in two weeks, fresh benchmark updates or model refreshes could still alter the final ranking.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Объем
$48,207Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, featuring native multimodal support, a 1M-token context window, and Agent Swarm orchestration for up to 300 parallel sub-agents, has driven its 80.7% implied probability as the third-best AI agent lab by September 30. The open-weight model has posted competitive results on agent benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp, and coding arenas, narrowing the gap with closed U.S. systems while attracting developer adoption through lower-cost inference and tools like Kimi Code. Traders view this combination of demonstrated long-horizon agentic performance and rapid iteration as the decisive factor over labs like Meta, DeepSeek, or Anthropic, whose recent releases have not shifted relative standings as sharply. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard in two weeks, fresh benchmark updates or model refreshes could still alter the final ranking.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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