Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for July 15 project a daily maximum range of 26–30°C amid high rain probability, driven by an approaching low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea that favors widespread cloud cover and showers. These conditions limit solar insolation and convective heating, keeping peaks near or below the 30°C threshold despite the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal July temperatures. Model consensus and historical analogs for similar trough patterns support modest daytime highs, creating tight market-implied odds between 29°C and 30°C as traders weigh the balance between residual heat and precipitation suppression. Updated guidance from the Observatory on steering flow and rainfall timing will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Гонконге 15 июля?
30°C 42%
31°C 28%
29°C 21%
28°C 6%
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
6%
29°C
21%
30°C
42%
31°C
28%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 42%
31°C 28%
29°C 21%
28°C 6%
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
6%
29°C
21%
30°C
42%
31°C
28%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jul 13, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for July 15 project a daily maximum range of 26–30°C amid high rain probability, driven by an approaching low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea that favors widespread cloud cover and showers. These conditions limit solar insolation and convective heating, keeping peaks near or below the 30°C threshold despite the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal July temperatures. Model consensus and historical analogs for similar trough patterns support modest daytime highs, creating tight market-implied odds between 29°C and 30°C as traders weigh the balance between residual heat and precipitation suppression. Updated guidance from the Observatory on steering flow and rainfall timing will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы