**Recent southwest monsoon activity, known as habagat, is the dominant driver behind trader positioning for Manila's August 21 high temperature.** Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers over western Luzon, including Metro Manila, have suppressed daytime heating in recent days, aligning with PAGASA outlooks showing highs near 31–32°C alongside 40% rain chances. These conditions reflect typical wet-season dynamics, where monsoon moisture and variable insolation create a narrow range around the climatological August average of ~30–31°C. Forecast model consensus from official sources supports this tight distribution, with 31°C edging ahead in market-implied odds due to expected continued rainfall moderation, while 32°C remains close if brief clearing allows greater solar input. Key variables traders are monitoring include any short-term shifts in monsoon intensity or localized thunderstorm timing ahead of resolution, as even modest changes in cloud cover can differentiate these closely matched outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Маниле 21 августа?
Самая высокая температура в Маниле 21 августа?
31°C 37%
32°C 32%
33°C 16%
30°C 6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
21 авг. 2026 г.
26°C или ниже
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
5%
30°C
6%
31°C
37%
32°C
32%
33°C
16%
34°C
3%
35°C
1%
36°C или выше
<1%
31°C 37%
32°C 32%
33°C 16%
30°C 6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
21 авг. 2026 г.
26°C или ниже
$165 Объем
<1%
27°C
$266 Объем
1%
28°C
$42 Объем
1%
29°C
$45 Объем
5%
30°C
$50 Объем
6%
31°C
$132 Объем
37%
32°C
$100 Объем
32%
33°C
$98 Объем
16%
34°C
$131 Объем
3%
35°C
$44 Объем
1%
36°C или выше
$51 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent southwest monsoon activity, known as habagat, is the dominant driver behind trader positioning for Manila's August 21 high temperature.** Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers over western Luzon, including Metro Manila, have suppressed daytime heating in recent days, aligning with PAGASA outlooks showing highs near 31–32°C alongside 40% rain chances. These conditions reflect typical wet-season dynamics, where monsoon moisture and variable insolation create a narrow range around the climatological August average of ~30–31°C.
Forecast model consensus from official sources supports this tight distribution, with 31°C edging ahead in market-implied odds due to expected continued rainfall moderation, while 32°C remains close if brief clearing allows greater solar input. Key variables traders are monitoring include any short-term shifts in monsoon intensity or localized thunderstorm timing ahead of resolution, as even modest changes in cloud cover can differentiate these closely matched outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Объем
$1,126Дата окончания
21 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent southwest monsoon activity, known as habagat, is the dominant driver behind trader positioning for Manila's August 21 high temperature.** Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers over western Luzon, including Metro Manila, have suppressed daytime heating in recent days, aligning with PAGASA outlooks showing highs near 31–32°C alongside 40% rain chances. These conditions reflect typical wet-season dynamics, where monsoon moisture and variable insolation create a narrow range around the climatological August average of ~30–31°C.
Forecast model consensus from official sources supports this tight distribution, with 31°C edging ahead in market-implied odds due to expected continued rainfall moderation, while 32°C remains close if brief clearing allows greater solar input. Key variables traders are monitoring include any short-term shifts in monsoon intensity or localized thunderstorm timing ahead of resolution, as even modest changes in cloud cover can differentiate these closely matched outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$1,126Дата окончания
21 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent southwest monsoon activity, known as habagat, is the dominant driver behind trader positioning for Manila's August 21 high temperature.** Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers over western Luzon, including Metro Manila, have suppressed daytime heating in recent days, aligning with PAGASA outlooks showing highs near 31–32°C alongside 40% rain chances. These conditions reflect typical wet-season dynamics, where monsoon moisture and variable insolation create a narrow range around the climatological August average of ~30–31°C. Forecast model consensus from official sources supports this tight distribution, with 31°C edging ahead in market-implied odds due to expected continued rainfall moderation, while 32°C remains close if brief clearing allows greater solar input. Key variables traders are monitoring include any short-term shifts in monsoon intensity or localized thunderstorm timing ahead of resolution, as even modest changes in cloud cover can differentiate these closely matched outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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