Recent short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models positions Munich’s August 8 maximum near 28–29°C under mostly sunny skies and light easterly flow, following a post-heatwave cooling trend after early-August readings above 30°C. Trader consensus around the closely matched 29°C and 30°C outcomes reflects modest model spread driven by uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing depth, afternoon convective cloud development, and exact timing of any scattered showers, all of which can alter peak solar heating and evaporative cooling by 1–2°C. Official DWD station measurements will resolve the market, with updated model cycles over the next 24 hours representing the key data points likely to shift implied probabilities.