**Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF places the most likely peak temperature in Paris on July 9, 2026, between 33–35 °C, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those levels (34 °C at 35 %, 35 °C at 27 %, 36 °C at 18 %, 33 °C at 17 %).** An intense early-July heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure ridge and clear skies has already produced highs near 35–36 °C on July 7–8. For July 9, the primary differentiating factors are subtle shifts in the ensemble spread: slightly stronger northeasterly flow or modest cloud build-up could cap the maximum near 33 °C, while continued subsidence and full insolation would favor 35–36 °C. Official short-range guidance shows low precipitation risk but a modest cooling trend relative to mid-week peaks, keeping extreme outcomes (≥37 °C or ≤32 °C) at low probabilities. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will narrow the spread ahead of market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Paris on July 9?
Highest temperature in Paris on July 9?
34°C 45%
35°C 29%
33°C 23%
36°C 4.2%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 июл. 2026 г.
31°C or below
1%
32°C
3%
33°C
23%
34°C
45%
35°C
29%
36°C
4%
37°C
1%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
34°C 45%
35°C 29%
33°C 23%
36°C 4.2%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 июл. 2026 г.
31°C or below
$150 Объем
1%
32°C
$89 Объем
3%
33°C
$94 Объем
23%
34°C
$824 Объем
45%
35°C
$412 Объем
29%
36°C
$30 Объем
4%
37°C
$41 Объем
1%
38°C
$35 Объем
1%
39°C
$258 Объем
<1%
40°C
$36 Объем
<1%
41°C or higher
$537 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF places the most likely peak temperature in Paris on July 9, 2026, between 33–35 °C, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those levels (34 °C at 35 %, 35 °C at 27 %, 36 °C at 18 %, 33 °C at 17 %).**
An intense early-July heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure ridge and clear skies has already produced highs near 35–36 °C on July 7–8. For July 9, the primary differentiating factors are subtle shifts in the ensemble spread: slightly stronger northeasterly flow or modest cloud build-up could cap the maximum near 33 °C, while continued subsidence and full insolation would favor 35–36 °C. Official short-range guidance shows low precipitation risk but a modest cooling trend relative to mid-week peaks, keeping extreme outcomes (≥37 °C or ≤32 °C) at low probabilities. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will narrow the spread ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Объем
$2,505Дата окончания
9 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF places the most likely peak temperature in Paris on July 9, 2026, between 33–35 °C, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those levels (34 °C at 35 %, 35 °C at 27 %, 36 °C at 18 %, 33 °C at 17 %).**
An intense early-July heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure ridge and clear skies has already produced highs near 35–36 °C on July 7–8. For July 9, the primary differentiating factors are subtle shifts in the ensemble spread: slightly stronger northeasterly flow or modest cloud build-up could cap the maximum near 33 °C, while continued subsidence and full insolation would favor 35–36 °C. Official short-range guidance shows low precipitation risk but a modest cooling trend relative to mid-week peaks, keeping extreme outcomes (≥37 °C or ≤32 °C) at low probabilities. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will narrow the spread ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$2,505Дата окончания
9 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF places the most likely peak temperature in Paris on July 9, 2026, between 33–35 °C, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those levels (34 °C at 35 %, 35 °C at 27 %, 36 °C at 18 %, 33 °C at 17 %).** An intense early-July heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure ridge and clear skies has already produced highs near 35–36 °C on July 7–8. For July 9, the primary differentiating factors are subtle shifts in the ensemble spread: slightly stronger northeasterly flow or modest cloud build-up could cap the maximum near 33 °C, while continued subsidence and full insolation would favor 35–36 °C. Official short-range guidance shows low precipitation risk but a modest cooling trend relative to mid-week peaks, keeping extreme outcomes (≥37 °C or ≤32 °C) at low probabilities. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will narrow the spread ahead of market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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