Polymarket traders price a 54% implied probability for India annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50% in 2026, aligning with the Reserve Bank of India's FY27 projection of 4.6% headline inflation amid upside risks from surging energy costs. April 2026 retail CPI edged up to 3.48% year-over-year—the sixth consecutive monthly rise driven by 4.2% food inflation—while wholesale price inflation spiked to 8.3%, its highest in over three years, on a fuel shock that could passthrough to consumer prices. Consensus forecasts, including Goldman Sachs' revised 4.6% for 2026, reflect geopolitical tensions and oil volatility, positioning lower bins like 3.00-3.74% (8.9%) as underdogs. Next CPI release on June 12 may refine rate path expectations ahead of RBI's June policy review.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4,50%+ 54%
2,25% – 2,99% 8.2%
<0,75% 8%
1,50% до 2,24% 5.1%
$60,216 Объем
$60,216 Объем
<0,75%
8%
0,75% до 1,49%
1%
1,50% до 2,24%
5%
2,25% – 2,99%
8%
От 3,00% до 3,74%
9%
От 3,75% до 4,49%
1%
4,50%+
54%
4,50%+ 54%
2,25% – 2,99% 8.2%
<0,75% 8%
1,50% до 2,24% 5.1%
$60,216 Объем
$60,216 Объем
<0,75%
8%
0,75% до 1,49%
1%
1,50% до 2,24%
5%
2,25% – 2,99%
8%
От 3,00% до 3,74%
9%
От 3,75% до 4,49%
1%
4,50%+
54%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 54% implied probability for India annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50% in 2026, aligning with the Reserve Bank of India's FY27 projection of 4.6% headline inflation amid upside risks from surging energy costs. April 2026 retail CPI edged up to 3.48% year-over-year—the sixth consecutive monthly rise driven by 4.2% food inflation—while wholesale price inflation spiked to 8.3%, its highest in over three years, on a fuel shock that could passthrough to consumer prices. Consensus forecasts, including Goldman Sachs' revised 4.6% for 2026, reflect geopolitical tensions and oil volatility, positioning lower bins like 3.00-3.74% (8.9%) as underdogs. Next CPI release on June 12 may refine rate path expectations ahead of RBI's June policy review.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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