Recent July 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 4.45%—up from 4.38% in June and the highest reading since late 2024—has reinforced trader positioning in the 4.50%+ outcome for India's 2026 annual average. Elevated food and energy components, driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions pushing up global oil prices and pressuring the rupee, combined with adverse weather effects on crops, explain the recent acceleration while keeping readings inside the RBI's 2-6% tolerance band around the 4% target. Forward-looking RBI projections and analyst consensus for FY2026-27 averaging near 4.8-5.0% further support the dominant implied probability, though monsoon performance and potential base effects in coming months remain key swing factors for final calendar-year resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4,50%+ 80%
От 3,75% до 4,49% 13.3%
<0,75% 3.3%
От 3,00% до 3,74% 2.5%
$78,329 Объем
$78,329 Объем
<0,75%
3%
0,75% до 1,49%
<1%
1,50% до 2,24%
1%
2,25% – 2,99%
1%
От 3,00% до 3,74%
3%
От 3,75% до 4,49%
13%
4,50%+
80%
4,50%+ 80%
От 3,75% до 4,49% 13.3%
<0,75% 3.3%
От 3,00% до 3,74% 2.5%
$78,329 Объем
$78,329 Объем
<0,75%
3%
0,75% до 1,49%
<1%
1,50% до 2,24%
1%
2,25% – 2,99%
1%
От 3,00% до 3,74%
3%
От 3,75% до 4,49%
13%
4,50%+
80%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent July 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 4.45%—up from 4.38% in June and the highest reading since late 2024—has reinforced trader positioning in the 4.50%+ outcome for India's 2026 annual average. Elevated food and energy components, driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions pushing up global oil prices and pressuring the rupee, combined with adverse weather effects on crops, explain the recent acceleration while keeping readings inside the RBI's 2-6% tolerance band around the 4% target. Forward-looking RBI projections and analyst consensus for FY2026-27 averaging near 4.8-5.0% further support the dominant implied probability, though monsoon performance and potential base effects in coming months remain key swing factors for final calendar-year resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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