**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 to succeed his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026.** The transition occurred amid active conflict, with an interim council initially handling duties under the constitution before the clerical body reached consensus on a permanent successor. Trader odds for further leadership change by late 2026 remain low, reflecting the regime’s rapid consolidation around Mojtaba and the IRGC’s influence during wartime. Uncertainties persist due to Mojtaba’s limited verified public appearances since the strikes, reports of possible injuries, and questions over his effective control. Longer-dated outcomes such as mid-2027 carry higher probabilities, consistent with the historical stability of the supreme leader position once filled and the absence of immediate triggers like new strikes, major protests, or institutional challenges. No scheduled events in the near term are expected to force additional turnover.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$23,608,557 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
22 августа
<1%
31 августа
1%
30 сентября
5%
31 октября
8%
30 ноября
11%
31 декабря
17%
30 июня 2027 года
26%
$23,608,557 Объем
22 августа
$58,081 Объем
<1%
31 августа
$1,176,985 Объем
1%
30 сентября
$464,388 Объем
5%
31 октября
$13,961 Объем
8%
30 ноября
$12,278 Объем
11%
31 декабря
$4,033,476 Объем
17%
30 июня 2027 года
$241,196 Объем
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 to succeed his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026.** The transition occurred amid active conflict, with an interim council initially handling duties under the constitution before the clerical body reached consensus on a permanent successor. Trader odds for further leadership change by late 2026 remain low, reflecting the regime’s rapid consolidation around Mojtaba and the IRGC’s influence during wartime. Uncertainties persist due to Mojtaba’s limited verified public appearances since the strikes, reports of possible injuries, and questions over his effective control. Longer-dated outcomes such as mid-2027 carry higher probabilities, consistent with the historical stability of the supreme leader position once filled and the absence of immediate triggers like new strikes, major protests, or institutional challenges. No scheduled events in the near term are expected to force additional turnover.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ET
Объем
$23,608,557Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 to succeed his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026.** The transition occurred amid active conflict, with an interim council initially handling duties under the constitution before the clerical body reached consensus on a permanent successor. Trader odds for further leadership change by late 2026 remain low, reflecting the regime’s rapid consolidation around Mojtaba and the IRGC’s influence during wartime. Uncertainties persist due to Mojtaba’s limited verified public appearances since the strikes, reports of possible injuries, and questions over his effective control. Longer-dated outcomes such as mid-2027 carry higher probabilities, consistent with the historical stability of the supreme leader position once filled and the absence of immediate triggers like new strikes, major protests, or institutional challenges. No scheduled events in the near term are expected to force additional turnover.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$23,608,557Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 to succeed his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026.** The transition occurred amid active conflict, with an interim council initially handling duties under the constitution before the clerical body reached consensus on a permanent successor. Trader odds for further leadership change by late 2026 remain low, reflecting the regime’s rapid consolidation around Mojtaba and the IRGC’s influence during wartime. Uncertainties persist due to Mojtaba’s limited verified public appearances since the strikes, reports of possible injuries, and questions over his effective control. Longer-dated outcomes such as mid-2027 carry higher probabilities, consistent with the historical stability of the supreme leader position once filled and the absence of immediate triggers like new strikes, major protests, or institutional challenges. No scheduled events in the near term are expected to force additional turnover.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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