Recent forecast models from sources like GFS and European agencies show clear skies, light winds, and dry air over Madrid for September 7, supporting overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 20°C. This aligns with the market's leading implied probability for 20°C or below, reflecting trader consensus on stable high-pressure conditions without significant cold-air advection. Historical September 7 lows average around 17°C, yet the current warm anomaly—driven by persistent subtropical ridging—keeps probabilities for sub-20°C outcomes balanced near 50%. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine dew point and wind fields that control the exact low, with resolution hinging on the official overnight minimum recorded at the Madrid reference station.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Мадриде 7 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Мадриде 7 сентября?
30°C или выше 33%
24°C 29%
22°C 21%
25°C 19%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
7 сент. 2026 г.
20°C или ниже
48%
21°C
18%
22°C
21%
23°C
2%
24°C
29%
25°C
19%
26°C
19%
27°C
16%
28°C
15%
29°C
8%
30°C или выше
33%
30°C или выше 33%
24°C 29%
22°C 21%
25°C 19%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
7 сент. 2026 г.
20°C или ниже
$25 Объем
48%
21°C
$47 Объем
18%
22°C
$0 Объем
21%
23°C
$0 Объем
2%
24°C
$0 Объем
29%
25°C
$0 Объем
19%
26°C
$0 Объем
19%
27°C
$0 Объем
16%
28°C
$0 Объем
15%
29°C
$0 Объем
8%
30°C или выше
$0 Объем
33%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like GFS and European agencies show clear skies, light winds, and dry air over Madrid for September 7, supporting overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 20°C. This aligns with the market's leading implied probability for 20°C or below, reflecting trader consensus on stable high-pressure conditions without significant cold-air advection. Historical September 7 lows average around 17°C, yet the current warm anomaly—driven by persistent subtropical ridging—keeps probabilities for sub-20°C outcomes balanced near 50%. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine dew point and wind fields that control the exact low, with resolution hinging on the official overnight minimum recorded at the Madrid reference station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$72Дата окончания
7 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like GFS and European agencies show clear skies, light winds, and dry air over Madrid for September 7, supporting overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 20°C. This aligns with the market's leading implied probability for 20°C or below, reflecting trader consensus on stable high-pressure conditions without significant cold-air advection. Historical September 7 lows average around 17°C, yet the current warm anomaly—driven by persistent subtropical ridging—keeps probabilities for sub-20°C outcomes balanced near 50%. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine dew point and wind fields that control the exact low, with resolution hinging on the official overnight minimum recorded at the Madrid reference station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$72Дата окончания
7 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources like GFS and European agencies show clear skies, light winds, and dry air over Madrid for September 7, supporting overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 20°C. This aligns with the market's leading implied probability for 20°C or below, reflecting trader consensus on stable high-pressure conditions without significant cold-air advection. Historical September 7 lows average around 17°C, yet the current warm anomaly—driven by persistent subtropical ridging—keeps probabilities for sub-20°C outcomes balanced near 50%. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine dew point and wind fields that control the exact low, with resolution hinging on the official overnight minimum recorded at the Madrid reference station.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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