**Current forecast consensus from AEMET and global models indicates a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 5 near 25°C, driven by a persistent late-summer heatwave that keeps overnight lows elevated.** Official AEMET guidance lists a 25°C minimum alongside a 38°C maximum under mostly cloudy skies and light variable winds, while ensemble runs and sites such as Globalmeteo and WeatherBug cluster between 23–27°C. This reflects broader atmospheric conditions: a strong subtropical ridge suppressing nocturnal cooling, combined with Madrid’s urban heat-island effect and dew points in the mid-teens Celsius that limit radiative heat loss. Recent developments include the extension of yellow heat alerts through the weekend, with observed minima already climbing above 22°C in prior days. Historical September 5 averages (around 17°C) underscore how anomalous the current pattern is. Traders appear to weigh the risk of slightly cooler model solutions or measurement adjustments against the strong signal for values at or above 25°C, producing the heavy weighting toward the 24°C-or-below bin while still assigning meaningful probability to 25°C. Updated model runs and the next AEMET briefing remain the key near-term catalysts.