Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates overnight lows in New York City on July 31 will likely settle in the upper 60s to low 70s, with limited radiative cooling from expected cloud cover and elevated humidity. Weak steering flow and a passing disturbance support scattered showers that reduce temperature drops, while the urban heat island and marine influence from the Atlantic further moderate extremes. Model spreads remain narrow around these values because of consistent guidance on dew points and wind speeds near 5–10 mph, leaving traders balanced across the 66–71°F bins. Updated short-range runs tomorrow morning will clarify any late adjustments from boundary-layer mixing.