Global monitoring by the U.S. Geological Survey shows magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes occur roughly once per year on average, following a Poisson distribution that assigns only about an 11% chance of one striking anywhere in the next six weeks. No foreshock sequences, stress-transfer signals, or anomalous seismic swarms have appeared in real-time catalogs since the April 2026 Japan M7.7 event, whose brief 1% aftershock-linked megaquake risk has long decayed. Current plate-boundary strain rates and absence of clustering near major subduction zones keep the near-term probability low, consistent with traders assigning 89% odds to no megaquake by June 30.