Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, anchored by the absence of qualifying events through mid-May per official sources: no Category 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson scale, winds ≥157 mph) US landfall via NOAA/NHC records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake on USGS moment magnitude scale, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per Global Volcanism Program, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact via NASA CNEOS. These extremes are historically rare—US Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade, M8.5+ quakes occur globally every 5–10 years—bolstering "No" after four event-free months. Recent NOAA outlooks forecast below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid an 82% chance of El Niño emergence by summer, increasing wind shear; monitor NHC advisories starting June, USGS seismic feeds, and volcanic alerts for potential shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСтихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Стихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Да
$217,927 Объем
$217,927 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$217,927 Объем
$217,927 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, anchored by the absence of qualifying events through mid-May per official sources: no Category 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson scale, winds ≥157 mph) US landfall via NOAA/NHC records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake on USGS moment magnitude scale, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per Global Volcanism Program, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact via NASA CNEOS. These extremes are historically rare—US Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade, M8.5+ quakes occur globally every 5–10 years—bolstering "No" after four event-free months. Recent NOAA outlooks forecast below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid an 82% chance of El Niño emergence by summer, increasing wind shear; monitor NHC advisories starting June, USGS seismic feeds, and volcanic alerts for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Объем
$217,927Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, anchored by the absence of qualifying events through mid-May per official sources: no Category 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson scale, winds ≥157 mph) US landfall via NOAA/NHC records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake on USGS moment magnitude scale, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per Global Volcanism Program, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact via NASA CNEOS. These extremes are historically rare—US Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade, M8.5+ quakes occur globally every 5–10 years—bolstering "No" after four event-free months. Recent NOAA outlooks forecast below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid an 82% chance of El Niño emergence by summer, increasing wind shear; monitor NHC advisories starting June, USGS seismic feeds, and volcanic alerts for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Объем
$217,927Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, anchored by the absence of qualifying events through mid-May per official sources: no Category 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson scale, winds ≥157 mph) US landfall via NOAA/NHC records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake on USGS moment magnitude scale, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per Global Volcanism Program, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact via NASA CNEOS. These extremes are historically rare—US Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade, M8.5+ quakes occur globally every 5–10 years—bolstering "No" after four event-free months. Recent NOAA outlooks forecast below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid an 82% chance of El Niño emergence by summer, increasing wind shear; monitor NHC advisories starting June, USGS seismic feeds, and volcanic alerts for potential shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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