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How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

icon for How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

июн. 30

дек. 31

июн. 30

дек. 31

14–16 38%

11–13 23%

17–19 23%

20+ 12.4%

Polymarket

$1,331,841 Объем

14–16 38%

11–13 23%

17–19 23%

20+ 12.4%

Polymarket

$1,331,841 Объем

5–7

$79,589 Объем

1%

8–10

$134,517 Объем

4%

11–13

$412,229 Объем

23%

14–16

$186,631 Объем

38%

17–19

$211,253 Объем

23%

20+

$64,684 Объем

9%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.With six magnitude 7.0–7.9 earthquakes recorded through mid-June 2026—including a recent 7.8 event offshore the Philippines—the annual pace remains below the USGS long-term average of roughly 15–16 such events. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin reflects expectations of typical second-half clustering along subduction zones, while the closely matched 11–13 outcome highlights uncertainty from irregular aftershock sequences and potential quiet periods on major plate boundaries. No magnitude 8.0+ events have occurred yet, and resolution hinges on whether seismic activity rebounds before year-end amid inherent year-to-year variability in global catalogs.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Объем
$1,331,841
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.With six magnitude 7.0–7.9 earthquakes recorded through mid-June 2026—including a recent 7.8 event offshore the Philippines—the annual pace remains below the USGS long-term average of roughly 15–16 such events. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin reflects expectations of typical second-half clustering along subduction zones, while the closely matched 11–13 outcome highlights uncertainty from irregular aftershock sequences and potential quiet periods on major plate boundaries. No magnitude 8.0+ events have occurred yet, and resolution hinges on whether seismic activity rebounds before year-end amid inherent year-to-year variability in global catalogs.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Объем
$1,331,841
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 7 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «14–16» с 38%, за ним следует «11–13» с 23%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 38¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 38%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $1.3 million с момента запуска рынка Dec 31, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?», просмотри 7 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?» — «14–16» с 38%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 38%. Следующий ближайший исход — «11–13» с 23%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.