Trader consensus on an 83% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026 reflects NASA's CNEOS Sentry system's clear risk table, which lists zero potential impacts for the year among tracked near-Earth objects. Recent safe close approaches, including car-sized 2026 FM3 in March and bus-sized 2026 EG1, underscore effective planetary defense monitoring via infrared telescopes and Sentry-II algorithms, with no trajectory adjustments signaling threats. Early data from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in April revealed over 11,000 new asteroids, enhancing catalog completeness without uncovering 2026 dangers. The residual 17% Yes accounts for undetected small bolides, akin to historical airbursts like 2018's Bering Sea event, though baseline annual frequency remains low; watch the May 18 flyby of 2026 JH2 for observational insights.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКрупный удар метеорита (10 тыс. тонн +) в 2026 году?
Крупный удар метеорита (10 тыс. тонн +) в 2026 году?
Да
$153,442 Объем
$153,442 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$153,442 Объем
$153,442 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on an 83% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026 reflects NASA's CNEOS Sentry system's clear risk table, which lists zero potential impacts for the year among tracked near-Earth objects. Recent safe close approaches, including car-sized 2026 FM3 in March and bus-sized 2026 EG1, underscore effective planetary defense monitoring via infrared telescopes and Sentry-II algorithms, with no trajectory adjustments signaling threats. Early data from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in April revealed over 11,000 new asteroids, enhancing catalog completeness without uncovering 2026 dangers. The residual 17% Yes accounts for undetected small bolides, akin to historical airbursts like 2018's Bering Sea event, though baseline annual frequency remains low; watch the May 18 flyby of 2026 JH2 for observational insights.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Объем
$153,442Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on an 83% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026 reflects NASA's CNEOS Sentry system's clear risk table, which lists zero potential impacts for the year among tracked near-Earth objects. Recent safe close approaches, including car-sized 2026 FM3 in March and bus-sized 2026 EG1, underscore effective planetary defense monitoring via infrared telescopes and Sentry-II algorithms, with no trajectory adjustments signaling threats. Early data from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in April revealed over 11,000 new asteroids, enhancing catalog completeness without uncovering 2026 dangers. The residual 17% Yes accounts for undetected small bolides, akin to historical airbursts like 2018's Bering Sea event, though baseline annual frequency remains low; watch the May 18 flyby of 2026 JH2 for observational insights.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$153,442Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 83% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026 reflects NASA's CNEOS Sentry system's clear risk table, which lists zero potential impacts for the year among tracked near-Earth objects. Recent safe close approaches, including car-sized 2026 FM3 in March and bus-sized 2026 EG1, underscore effective planetary defense monitoring via infrared telescopes and Sentry-II algorithms, with no trajectory adjustments signaling threats. Early data from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in April revealed over 11,000 new asteroids, enhancing catalog completeness without uncovering 2026 dangers. The residual 17% Yes accounts for undetected small bolides, akin to historical airbursts like 2018's Bering Sea event, though baseline annual frequency remains low; watch the May 18 flyby of 2026 JH2 for observational insights.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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