**Recent organization of a broad low-pressure area in the Central Pacific into Tropical Storm Lala around August 13 has driven the dominant 73.5% market-implied probability for a hurricane forming August 13–16.** Official National Hurricane Center monitoring and model consensus show favorable conditions for intensification, including warm sea-surface temperatures and reduced wind shear typical of the peak August–September period in the Eastern and Central Pacific basins. Above-normal seasonal outlooks from NOAA—projecting 15–22 named storms and 9–14 hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific—reflect supportive large-scale factors such as ongoing El Niño influences that enhance Pacific activity. Lala’s proximity to Hawaii and forecasts for strengthening into a hurricane this weekend further anchor trader sentiment toward near-term formation. Lower probabilities for later August windows and the minimal 7.5% chance of no August hurricane reflect the high likelihood of Lala or nearby systems like TD Hernan reaching hurricane intensity (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale) within the current window, consistent with climatological peaks and real-time observational data. Updated NHC forecasts and model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКогда в Тихом океане сформируется следующий ураган?
Когда в Тихом океане сформируется следующий ураган?
13–16 августа 2026 года 61%
27 августа — 31 августа 2026 года 29%
22 августа — 26 августа 2026 года 7%
В августе 2026 года не образуется ни одного тихоокеанского урагана 2%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
17 авг. 2026 г.
13–16 августа 2026 года
77%
17–21 августа 2026 года
37%
22 августа — 26 августа 2026 года
7%
27 августа — 31 августа 2026 года
22%
В августе 2026 года не образуется ни одного тихоокеанского урагана
2%
13–16 августа 2026 года 61%
27 августа — 31 августа 2026 года 29%
22 августа — 26 августа 2026 года 7%
В августе 2026 года не образуется ни одного тихоокеанского урагана 2%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
17 авг. 2026 г.
13–16 августа 2026 года
$270 Объем
77%
17–21 августа 2026 года
$75 Объем
37%
22 августа — 26 августа 2026 года
$75 Объем
7%
27 августа — 31 августа 2026 года
$115 Объем
22%
В августе 2026 года не образуется ни одного тихоокеанского урагана
$102 Объем
2%
This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac**Recent organization of a broad low-pressure area in the Central Pacific into Tropical Storm Lala around August 13 has driven the dominant 73.5% market-implied probability for a hurricane forming August 13–16.** Official National Hurricane Center monitoring and model consensus show favorable conditions for intensification, including warm sea-surface temperatures and reduced wind shear typical of the peak August–September period in the Eastern and Central Pacific basins.
Above-normal seasonal outlooks from NOAA—projecting 15–22 named storms and 9–14 hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific—reflect supportive large-scale factors such as ongoing El Niño influences that enhance Pacific activity. Lala’s proximity to Hawaii and forecasts for strengthening into a hurricane this weekend further anchor trader sentiment toward near-term formation. Lower probabilities for later August windows and the minimal 7.5% chance of no August hurricane reflect the high likelihood of Lala or nearby systems like TD Hernan reaching hurricane intensity (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale) within the current window, consistent with climatological peaks and real-time observational data. Updated NHC forecasts and model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac
Открытие рынка: Aug 12, 2026, 11:19 AM ET
Объем
$637Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 11:19 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac**Recent organization of a broad low-pressure area in the Central Pacific into Tropical Storm Lala around August 13 has driven the dominant 73.5% market-implied probability for a hurricane forming August 13–16.** Official National Hurricane Center monitoring and model consensus show favorable conditions for intensification, including warm sea-surface temperatures and reduced wind shear typical of the peak August–September period in the Eastern and Central Pacific basins.
Above-normal seasonal outlooks from NOAA—projecting 15–22 named storms and 9–14 hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific—reflect supportive large-scale factors such as ongoing El Niño influences that enhance Pacific activity. Lala’s proximity to Hawaii and forecasts for strengthening into a hurricane this weekend further anchor trader sentiment toward near-term formation. Lower probabilities for later August windows and the minimal 7.5% chance of no August hurricane reflect the high likelihood of Lala or nearby systems like TD Hernan reaching hurricane intensity (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale) within the current window, consistent with climatological peaks and real-time observational data. Updated NHC forecasts and model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac
Объем
$637Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 11:19 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent organization of a broad low-pressure area in the Central Pacific into Tropical Storm Lala around August 13 has driven the dominant 73.5% market-implied probability for a hurricane forming August 13–16.** Official National Hurricane Center monitoring and model consensus show favorable conditions for intensification, including warm sea-surface temperatures and reduced wind shear typical of the peak August–September period in the Eastern and Central Pacific basins. Above-normal seasonal outlooks from NOAA—projecting 15–22 named storms and 9–14 hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific—reflect supportive large-scale factors such as ongoing El Niño influences that enhance Pacific activity. Lala’s proximity to Hawaii and forecasts for strengthening into a hurricane this weekend further anchor trader sentiment toward near-term formation. Lower probabilities for later August windows and the minimal 7.5% chance of no August hurricane reflect the high likelihood of Lala or nearby systems like TD Hernan reaching hurricane intensity (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale) within the current window, consistent with climatological peaks and real-time observational data. Updated NHC forecasts and model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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