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icon for Мин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?

Мин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?

icon for Мин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?

Мин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?

4,4-4,6 млн кв. км 38.5%

4,6–4,8 млн кв. км 28.7%

4,2-4,4 млн кв. км 22.1%

<4 млн кв км 14%

Polymarket

$67,167 Объем

4,4-4,6 млн кв. км 38.5%

4,6–4,8 млн кв. км 28.7%

4,2-4,4 млн кв. км 22.1%

<4 млн кв км 14%

Polymarket

$67,167 Объем

<4 млн кв км

$30,431 Объем

14%

4,0–4,2 млн кв. км

$6,551 Объем

13%

4,2-4,4 млн кв. км

$2,920 Объем

21%

4,4-4,6 млн кв. км

$3,128 Объем

38%

4,6–4,8 млн кв. км

$6,805 Объем

29%

4,8–5 млн кв. км

$2,876 Объем

3%

5+ млн кв. км

$14,455 Объем

5%

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record low winter maximum extent tied with 2025 at 14.29 million sq km, combined with fifth-lowest June and ninth-lowest early August extents (around 7 million sq km), anchors trader consensus around 4.4–4.6 million sq km for the September minimum. Thin first-year ice from the prior low-growth season, above-average ocean heat content in the Atlantic sector, and accelerated July melt rates (29% decline) increase vulnerability to rapid late-summer losses, while model projections cluster near 4.49 million sq km. Persistent marginal-sea deficits and variable atmospheric steering patterns create the narrow spread separating leading bins from lower-probability outcomes below 4.2 or above 4.8 million sq km, with new NSIDC and Met Office updates expected to refine positioning before peak melt.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Объем
$67,167
Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record low winter maximum extent tied with 2025 at 14.29 million sq km, combined with fifth-lowest June and ninth-lowest early August extents (around 7 million sq km), anchors trader consensus around 4.4–4.6 million sq km for the September minimum. Thin first-year ice from the prior low-growth season, above-average ocean heat content in the Atlantic sector, and accelerated July melt rates (29% decline) increase vulnerability to rapid late-summer losses, while model projections cluster near 4.49 million sq km. Persistent marginal-sea deficits and variable atmospheric steering patterns create the narrow spread separating leading bins from lower-probability outcomes below 4.2 or above 4.8 million sq km, with new NSIDC and Met Office updates expected to refine positioning before peak melt.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Объем
$67,167
Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Связанные

icon for Увеличится ли глобальная температура более чем на 1,29ºC в августе 2026 года?

Увеличится ли глобальная температура более чем на 1,29ºC в августе 2026 года?

96%
Да
icon for Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?

Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?

37%
icon for Will August 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

Will August 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

96%

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Мин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 7 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «4,4-4,6 млн кв. км» с 38%, за ним следует «4,6–4,8 млн кв. км» с 29%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 38¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 38%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Мин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $67.2K с момента запуска рынка Nov 20, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Мин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?», просмотри 7 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Мин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?» — «4,4-4,6 млн кв. км» с 38%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 38%. Следующий ближайший исход — «4,6–4,8 млн кв. км» с 29%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Мин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.