Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models show an incoming Atlantic front increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm risk over Paris on August 15, driving a cooldown after midweek highs near 38°C. This shift in air mass and reduced insolation under the Saffir-Simpson-irrelevant but analogous synoptic pattern supports maximum temperatures clustering at 32–33°C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at over 69% combined probability. Historical August baselines average 24–29°C, yet 2026’s early heat wave context underscores sensitivity to short-term model consensus on steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture. Updated runs and official briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Париже 15 августа?
33°C 37%
32°C 30%
34°C 17%
35°C 10%
30°C or below
3%
31°C
6%
32°C
30%
33°C
41%
34°C
17%
35°C
10%
36°C
2%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
33°C 37%
32°C 30%
34°C 17%
35°C 10%
30°C or below
3%
31°C
6%
32°C
30%
33°C
41%
34°C
17%
35°C
10%
36°C
2%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models show an incoming Atlantic front increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm risk over Paris on August 15, driving a cooldown after midweek highs near 38°C. This shift in air mass and reduced insolation under the Saffir-Simpson-irrelevant but analogous synoptic pattern supports maximum temperatures clustering at 32–33°C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at over 69% combined probability. Historical August baselines average 24–29°C, yet 2026’s early heat wave context underscores sensitivity to short-term model consensus on steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture. Updated runs and official briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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