Latest ensemble runs from the German Weather Service (DWD) and ECMWF place Munich’s August 13 maximum near 30–31 °C, with the 30 °C and 31 °C outcomes nearly tied in the market. Light south-westerly flow under high pressure favors strong diurnal heating, yet variable high-cloud cover and the precise timing of the afternoon peak introduce a 1–2 °C spread across members. Clearer skies or brief clearing could push readings to 32 °C, while earlier or thicker cloud development would cap values at 29–30 °C. This tight clustering reflects traders’ assessment of insolation, boundary-layer mixing, and modest warm-air advection against typical late-summer baselines. Updated model guidance and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen resolution probabilities.