Trader consensus centers on 28–30°C as the likely peak in Tokyo on August 11, reflecting Japan Meteorological Agency model guidance for partly cloudy conditions with scattered showers that cap daytime heating near 29°C. The Pacific High extending over Honshu supplies warm, humid air masses, while light southerly flow and modest cloud cover introduce variability that differentiates the narrow 1°C bands. Recent model runs show limited spread, but afternoon convection or slight shifts in steering winds could trim the high to 28°C or allow brief clearing to reach 30°C. Historical August baselines around 30–32°C, combined with above-normal seasonal temperatures, support the tight clustering without strong outliers. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.