Forecast models from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF project Madrid's August 9 maximum near 36–37 °C under persistent high pressure and clear skies, consistent with early-August climatology where average highs reach 32–34 °C. Recent observations show daytime peaks of 36–38 °C across central Spain with minimal cloud cover or advection of cooler Atlantic air, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around those values. Traders assign the highest implied probability (47 %) to 36 °C because ensemble guidance shows limited upside potential without an unexpected shift in the 500 hPa ridge or surface wind direction; any late-model adjustment to 38 °C or above would require a measurable warming signal in the next 48-hour runs.