A strong heatwave driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge and clear skies has elevated overnight minimum temperatures across Paris ahead of August 13, limiting radiative cooling and keeping the urban heat island effect pronounced. Official guidance and model consensus point to a nighttime low near 22°C—the warmest such reading in recent days—well above the seasonal average of 15–16°C. This dynamic explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 20–21°C, with modest weight on 19°C or 22°C reflecting minor uncertainties in boundary-layer moisture or weak frontal timing. Updated Météo-France and European model runs expected in the next 24 hours will likely refine these ranges before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Париже 13 августа?
Самая низкая температура в Париже 13 августа?
21°C 43%
20°C 31%
19°C 16%
22°C 9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
13 авг. 2026 г.
18°C или ниже
4%
19°C
16%
20°C
31%
21°C
43%
22°C
9%
23°C
5%
24°C
2%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C или выше
<1%
21°C 43%
20°C 31%
19°C 16%
22°C 9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
13 авг. 2026 г.
18°C или ниже
$202 Объем
4%
19°C
$250 Объем
16%
20°C
$90 Объем
31%
21°C
$627 Объем
43%
22°C
$209 Объем
9%
23°C
$73 Объем
5%
24°C
$416 Объем
2%
25°C
$376 Объем
<1%
26°C
$275 Объем
<1%
27°C
$26 Объем
<1%
28°C или выше
$26 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong heatwave driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge and clear skies has elevated overnight minimum temperatures across Paris ahead of August 13, limiting radiative cooling and keeping the urban heat island effect pronounced. Official guidance and model consensus point to a nighttime low near 22°C—the warmest such reading in recent days—well above the seasonal average of 15–16°C. This dynamic explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 20–21°C, with modest weight on 19°C or 22°C reflecting minor uncertainties in boundary-layer moisture or weak frontal timing. Updated Météo-France and European model runs expected in the next 24 hours will likely refine these ranges before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$2,570Дата окончания
13 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong heatwave driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge and clear skies has elevated overnight minimum temperatures across Paris ahead of August 13, limiting radiative cooling and keeping the urban heat island effect pronounced. Official guidance and model consensus point to a nighttime low near 22°C—the warmest such reading in recent days—well above the seasonal average of 15–16°C. This dynamic explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 20–21°C, with modest weight on 19°C or 22°C reflecting minor uncertainties in boundary-layer moisture or weak frontal timing. Updated Météo-France and European model runs expected in the next 24 hours will likely refine these ranges before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$2,570Дата окончания
13 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strong heatwave driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge and clear skies has elevated overnight minimum temperatures across Paris ahead of August 13, limiting radiative cooling and keeping the urban heat island effect pronounced. Official guidance and model consensus point to a nighttime low near 22°C—the warmest such reading in recent days—well above the seasonal average of 15–16°C. This dynamic explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 20–21°C, with modest weight on 19°C or 22°C reflecting minor uncertainties in boundary-layer moisture or weak frontal timing. Updated Météo-France and European model runs expected in the next 24 hours will likely refine these ranges before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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