Recent forecasts from global and regional models place Chengdu's August 11 maximum near 35–37 °C, consistent with the tightly clustered market probabilities. Subtropical high pressure and monsoon moisture are sustaining high humidity and scattered afternoon thunderstorms that can cap daytime peaks through evaporative cooling and increased cloud cover. Historical climatology shows typical early-August highs of 30–34 °C, with occasional excursions above 37 °C when steering patterns suppress convection. Key differentiating variables include the exact timing and coverage of showers, boundary-layer moisture, and any late adjustments in numerical weather prediction runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration. Updated model guidance over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the narrow spread between 35 °C and 37 °C outcomes.