Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration show Shanghai's overnight low on August 13 centered near 25–27°C amid persistent summer monsoon moisture and high humidity above 75%. Recent runs indicate possible scattered showers or increased cloud cover that could limit radiative cooling and pin the minimum near 26°C—the market's narrow leader at 36.5% implied probability—while clearer intervals might allow a dip to 25°C or a hold at 27°C. Historical mid-August baselines average 25–26°C, with model spread driven by uncertain steering patterns and urban heat retention. Updated guidance on precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.