Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 34–35°C for Munich’s peak temperature on August 15 because ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service indicate a continuation of high-pressure subsidence and southerly flow delivering daytime maxima near 33–34°C under mostly sunny skies, with only limited late-day shower risk. Model spread centers on exact timing of any cloud increase and boundary-layer moisture, which can trim or boost the daily high by 1°C. Historical August climatology shows mean highs around 24–25°C, so current conditions represent a strong positive anomaly; official resolution relies on the calibrated thermometer at the Munich reference station, where urban effects add modest warmth. Fresh model runs expected in the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities before the market closes.