NOAA’s updated August 2026 outlook and Colorado State University forecast both project a well-below-normal Atlantic season, with only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) expected through November due to a strong El Niño suppressing formation and intensification. As of mid-August, just three weak tropical storms have formed, none reaching hurricane strength or U.S. landfall, consistent with the low historical probability of major landfalls in El Niño years. This scientific consensus on reduced Accumulated Cyclone Energy and steering patterns that favor recurvature away from the coast underpins traders’ strong preference for “No” at 83.5% implied probability for any Category 4 landfall before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли какой-либо ураган категории 4 выходить на сушу в США до 2027 года?
Будет ли какой-либо ураган категории 4 выходить на сушу в США до 2027 года?
Да
16% вероятность
$340,136 Объем
$340,136 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
16% вероятность
$340,136 Объем
$340,136 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s updated August 2026 outlook and Colorado State University forecast both project a well-below-normal Atlantic season, with only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) expected through November due to a strong El Niño suppressing formation and intensification. As of mid-August, just three weak tropical storms have formed, none reaching hurricane strength or U.S. landfall, consistent with the low historical probability of major landfalls in El Niño years. This scientific consensus on reduced Accumulated Cyclone Energy and steering patterns that favor recurvature away from the coast underpins traders’ strong preference for “No” at 83.5% implied probability for any Category 4 landfall before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Открытие рынка: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Объем
$340,136Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s updated August 2026 outlook and Colorado State University forecast both project a well-below-normal Atlantic season, with only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) expected through November due to a strong El Niño suppressing formation and intensification. As of mid-August, just three weak tropical storms have formed, none reaching hurricane strength or U.S. landfall, consistent with the low historical probability of major landfalls in El Niño years. This scientific consensus on reduced Accumulated Cyclone Energy and steering patterns that favor recurvature away from the coast underpins traders’ strong preference for “No” at 83.5% implied probability for any Category 4 landfall before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Объем
$340,136Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s updated August 2026 outlook and Colorado State University forecast both project a well-below-normal Atlantic season, with only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) expected through November due to a strong El Niño suppressing formation and intensification. As of mid-August, just three weak tropical storms have formed, none reaching hurricane strength or U.S. landfall, consistent with the low historical probability of major landfalls in El Niño years. This scientific consensus on reduced Accumulated Cyclone Energy and steering patterns that favor recurvature away from the coast underpins traders’ strong preference for “No” at 83.5% implied probability for any Category 4 landfall before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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