Forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season point to below-average activity, supporting the market-implied 61.5% probability that no Category 4 hurricane—sustained winds of 130–156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—makes U.S. landfall before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects just six hurricanes and two major (Category 3+) storms overall, with only a 32% chance of any major landfall along the continental U.S. coastline, well below the long-term 43% average. A developing El Niño pattern is expected to increase vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, suppressing intensification despite warmer western Atlantic sea-surface temperatures. No named storms have formed yet, and the National Hurricane Center’s daily outlooks resumed May 15 ahead of the June 1 start, with NOAA’s full seasonal release scheduled for May 21.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли какой-либо ураган категории 4 выходить на сушу в США до 2027 года?
Будет ли какой-либо ураган категории 4 выходить на сушу в США до 2027 года?
Да
$327,420 Объем
$327,420 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$327,420 Объем
$327,420 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season point to below-average activity, supporting the market-implied 61.5% probability that no Category 4 hurricane—sustained winds of 130–156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—makes U.S. landfall before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects just six hurricanes and two major (Category 3+) storms overall, with only a 32% chance of any major landfall along the continental U.S. coastline, well below the long-term 43% average. A developing El Niño pattern is expected to increase vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, suppressing intensification despite warmer western Atlantic sea-surface temperatures. No named storms have formed yet, and the National Hurricane Center’s daily outlooks resumed May 15 ahead of the June 1 start, with NOAA’s full seasonal release scheduled for May 21.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Открытие рынка: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Объем
$327,420Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season point to below-average activity, supporting the market-implied 61.5% probability that no Category 4 hurricane—sustained winds of 130–156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—makes U.S. landfall before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects just six hurricanes and two major (Category 3+) storms overall, with only a 32% chance of any major landfall along the continental U.S. coastline, well below the long-term 43% average. A developing El Niño pattern is expected to increase vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, suppressing intensification despite warmer western Atlantic sea-surface temperatures. No named storms have formed yet, and the National Hurricane Center’s daily outlooks resumed May 15 ahead of the June 1 start, with NOAA’s full seasonal release scheduled for May 21.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Объем
$327,420Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season point to below-average activity, supporting the market-implied 61.5% probability that no Category 4 hurricane—sustained winds of 130–156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—makes U.S. landfall before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects just six hurricanes and two major (Category 3+) storms overall, with only a 32% chance of any major landfall along the continental U.S. coastline, well below the long-term 43% average. A developing El Niño pattern is expected to increase vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, suppressing intensification despite warmer western Atlantic sea-surface temperatures. No named storms have formed yet, and the National Hurricane Center’s daily outlooks resumed May 15 ahead of the June 1 start, with NOAA’s full seasonal release scheduled for May 21.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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