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icon for Станет ли лето 2026 года самым жарким за всю историю Франции?

Станет ли лето 2026 года самым жарким за всю историю Франции?

icon for Станет ли лето 2026 года самым жарким за всю историю Франции?

Станет ли лето 2026 года самым жарким за всю историю Франции?

Да

97% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Да

97% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No". The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September. If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season. If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.Multiple record-shattering heatwaves have propelled France toward its hottest summer on record, with June delivering the warmest month in history and July topping the 2003 benchmark at a 24.9°C national average. These extremes, fueled by prolonged high-pressure systems and elevated sea surface temperatures, have already built an insurmountable lead in seasonal averages. Traders see little room for reversal given the margins, though a dramatically cooler late August could theoretically narrow the gap if anomalies flip sharply negative. Precursor data from Météo-France and Copernicus underscore the momentum, mirroring how early critical acclaim locks in awards frontrunners well before final voting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No".

The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.

If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.

If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.
Объем
$687
Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ET

Источник определения исхода

https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No". The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September. If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season. If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No". The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September. If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season. If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.Multiple record-shattering heatwaves have propelled France toward its hottest summer on record, with June delivering the warmest month in history and July topping the 2003 benchmark at a 24.9°C national average. These extremes, fueled by prolonged high-pressure systems and elevated sea surface temperatures, have already built an insurmountable lead in seasonal averages. Traders see little room for reversal given the margins, though a dramatically cooler late August could theoretically narrow the gap if anomalies flip sharply negative. Precursor data from Météo-France and Copernicus underscore the momentum, mirroring how early critical acclaim locks in awards frontrunners well before final voting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No".

The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.

If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.

If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.
Объем
$687
Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ET

Источник определения исхода

https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No". The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September. If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season. If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

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«Станет ли лето 2026 года самым жарким за всю историю Франции?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Aug 12, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

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Текущий фаворит для «Станет ли лето 2026 года самым жарким за всю историю Франции?» — «Будет ли лето 2026 года самым жарким летом во Франции за всю историю наблюдений?» с 97%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 97%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Станет ли лето 2026 года самым жарким за всю историю Франции?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.