NOAA’s below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook, forecasting just 1–3 major hurricanes amid El Niño conditions, reinforces trader expectations that a Category 5 landfall remains unlikely before 2027. Only four such U.S. landfalls have occurred since records began, underscoring their rarity even in active seasons. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms yet none reached the continental U.S., consistent with historical patterns where most Atlantic Category 5 systems weaken or recurve before landfall. Current model consensus and early-season observations show limited intensification potential through the peak months, though forecast uncertainty persists with possible La Niña development later in the year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$137,504 Объем
$137,504 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
$137,504 Объем
$137,504 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook, forecasting just 1–3 major hurricanes amid El Niño conditions, reinforces trader expectations that a Category 5 landfall remains unlikely before 2027. Only four such U.S. landfalls have occurred since records began, underscoring their rarity even in active seasons. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms yet none reached the continental U.S., consistent with historical patterns where most Atlantic Category 5 systems weaken or recurve before landfall. Current model consensus and early-season observations show limited intensification potential through the peak months, though forecast uncertainty persists with possible La Niña development later in the year.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Объем
$137,504Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook, forecasting just 1–3 major hurricanes amid El Niño conditions, reinforces trader expectations that a Category 5 landfall remains unlikely before 2027. Only four such U.S. landfalls have occurred since records began, underscoring their rarity even in active seasons. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms yet none reached the continental U.S., consistent with historical patterns where most Atlantic Category 5 systems weaken or recurve before landfall. Current model consensus and early-season observations show limited intensification potential through the peak months, though forecast uncertainty persists with possible La Niña development later in the year.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Объем
$137,504Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook, forecasting just 1–3 major hurricanes amid El Niño conditions, reinforces trader expectations that a Category 5 landfall remains unlikely before 2027. Only four such U.S. landfalls have occurred since records began, underscoring their rarity even in active seasons. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms yet none reached the continental U.S., consistent with historical patterns where most Atlantic Category 5 systems weaken or recurve before landfall. Current model consensus and early-season observations show limited intensification potential through the peak months, though forecast uncertainty persists with possible La Niña development later in the year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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