A strong El Niño pattern, now intensifying toward moderate-to-strong levels by the seasonal peak, has suppressed Atlantic activity through increased vertical wind shear and drier air in the main development region. NOAA’s August 2026 update projects a below-normal season with a 75% likelihood, forecasting just 2-6 hurricanes and 0-2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes overall, while current ACE stands at only 3.6 units after four weak tropical storms and zero hurricanes. Colorado State University similarly assigns just a 17-24% chance of any major hurricane landfall on the U.S. coastline. Category 5 systems, which require sustained winds of at least 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale, are historically rare for U.S. landfall even in active seasons, and the remaining window through November offers limited opportunity for rapid intensification under prevailing conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли какой-либо ураган категории 5 выходить на сушу в США до 2027 года?
Будет ли какой-либо ураган категории 5 выходить на сушу в США до 2027 года?
Да
15% вероятность
$139,736 Объем
$139,736 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
15% вероятность
$139,736 Объем
$139,736 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.A strong El Niño pattern, now intensifying toward moderate-to-strong levels by the seasonal peak, has suppressed Atlantic activity through increased vertical wind shear and drier air in the main development region. NOAA’s August 2026 update projects a below-normal season with a 75% likelihood, forecasting just 2-6 hurricanes and 0-2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes overall, while current ACE stands at only 3.6 units after four weak tropical storms and zero hurricanes. Colorado State University similarly assigns just a 17-24% chance of any major hurricane landfall on the U.S. coastline. Category 5 systems, which require sustained winds of at least 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale, are historically rare for U.S. landfall even in active seasons, and the remaining window through November offers limited opportunity for rapid intensification under prevailing conditions.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Объем
$139,736Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.A strong El Niño pattern, now intensifying toward moderate-to-strong levels by the seasonal peak, has suppressed Atlantic activity through increased vertical wind shear and drier air in the main development region. NOAA’s August 2026 update projects a below-normal season with a 75% likelihood, forecasting just 2-6 hurricanes and 0-2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes overall, while current ACE stands at only 3.6 units after four weak tropical storms and zero hurricanes. Colorado State University similarly assigns just a 17-24% chance of any major hurricane landfall on the U.S. coastline. Category 5 systems, which require sustained winds of at least 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale, are historically rare for U.S. landfall even in active seasons, and the remaining window through November offers limited opportunity for rapid intensification under prevailing conditions.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Объем
$139,736Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...A strong El Niño pattern, now intensifying toward moderate-to-strong levels by the seasonal peak, has suppressed Atlantic activity through increased vertical wind shear and drier air in the main development region. NOAA’s August 2026 update projects a below-normal season with a 75% likelihood, forecasting just 2-6 hurricanes and 0-2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes overall, while current ACE stands at only 3.6 units after four weak tropical storms and zero hurricanes. Colorado State University similarly assigns just a 17-24% chance of any major hurricane landfall on the U.S. coastline. Category 5 systems, which require sustained winds of at least 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale, are historically rare for U.S. landfall even in active seasons, and the remaining window through November offers limited opportunity for rapid intensification under prevailing conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы