NASA's February 2026 decision to re-profile Artemis III as a low-Earth orbit demonstration mission rather than a lunar landing underpins the 99% market-implied odds against a human moon landing in 2026. Delays in SpaceX Starship human landing system development, unproven in-orbit refueling, and SLS/Orion readiness pushed the first crewed surface mission to Artemis IV targeted for early 2028. Artemis II's April 2026 lunar flyby validated crewed deep-space operations but performed no landing, and no other agency or commercial provider has announced a 2026 surface attempt. With only months remaining in the year and no demonstrated hardware or launch cadence capable of supporting a landing, traders see virtually no pathway forward despite the inherent uncertainty in complex space programs.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВысадка человека на Луну в 2026 году?
Да
$1,967,148 Объем
$1,967,148 Объем
Да
$1,967,148 Объем
$1,967,148 Объем
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's February 2026 decision to re-profile Artemis III as a low-Earth orbit demonstration mission rather than a lunar landing underpins the 99% market-implied odds against a human moon landing in 2026. Delays in SpaceX Starship human landing system development, unproven in-orbit refueling, and SLS/Orion readiness pushed the first crewed surface mission to Artemis IV targeted for early 2028. Artemis II's April 2026 lunar flyby validated crewed deep-space operations but performed no landing, and no other agency or commercial provider has announced a 2026 surface attempt. With only months remaining in the year and no demonstrated hardware or launch cadence capable of supporting a landing, traders see virtually no pathway forward despite the inherent uncertainty in complex space programs.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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