The 99.2% implied probability against a human moon landing in 2026 reflects the Artemis program's repeated timeline slips, driven by unresolved technical hurdles in NASA's Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and SpaceX Starship human landing system. As of mid-August 2026, no integrated crewed flight test has occurred, and regulatory reviews plus supply-chain delays continue to push Artemis III beyond year-end. Traders view successful acceleration as unrealistic given historical patterns of multi-year postponements for similar deep-space milestones. While an unforeseen breakthrough in testing or emergency funding could theoretically shift outcomes, such scenarios remain improbable without prior verified milestones.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВысадка человека на Луну в 2026 году?
Высадка человека на Луну в 2026 году?
Да
<1% вероятность
$1,967,148 Объем
$1,967,148 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
<1% вероятность
$1,967,148 Объем
$1,967,148 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 99.2% implied probability against a human moon landing in 2026 reflects the Artemis program's repeated timeline slips, driven by unresolved technical hurdles in NASA's Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and SpaceX Starship human landing system. As of mid-August 2026, no integrated crewed flight test has occurred, and regulatory reviews plus supply-chain delays continue to push Artemis III beyond year-end. Traders view successful acceleration as unrealistic given historical patterns of multi-year postponements for similar deep-space milestones. While an unforeseen breakthrough in testing or emergency funding could theoretically shift outcomes, such scenarios remain improbable without prior verified milestones.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Объем
$1,967,148Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 99.2% implied probability against a human moon landing in 2026 reflects the Artemis program's repeated timeline slips, driven by unresolved technical hurdles in NASA's Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and SpaceX Starship human landing system. As of mid-August 2026, no integrated crewed flight test has occurred, and regulatory reviews plus supply-chain delays continue to push Artemis III beyond year-end. Traders view successful acceleration as unrealistic given historical patterns of multi-year postponements for similar deep-space milestones. While an unforeseen breakthrough in testing or emergency funding could theoretically shift outcomes, such scenarios remain improbable without prior verified milestones.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,967,148Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 99.2% implied probability against a human moon landing in 2026 reflects the Artemis program's repeated timeline slips, driven by unresolved technical hurdles in NASA's Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and SpaceX Starship human landing system. As of mid-August 2026, no integrated crewed flight test has occurred, and regulatory reviews plus supply-chain delays continue to push Artemis III beyond year-end. Traders view successful acceleration as unrealistic given historical patterns of multi-year postponements for similar deep-space milestones. While an unforeseen breakthrough in testing or emergency funding could theoretically shift outcomes, such scenarios remain improbable without prior verified milestones.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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