Elevated early-season tornado activity across the central and southeastern U.S. has positioned the 1,250+ outcome as the clear market leader. Through mid-May 2026, the Storm Prediction Center has confirmed roughly 560 tornadoes, exceeding the typical year-to-date pace by 30–40 percent and featuring multiple EF2–EF4 events, including the April 23 Enid, Oklahoma EF4. This surge stems from repeated high-shear, high-instability setups in March and April, with notable outbreaks on March 6–10 and April 17. Given a long-term annual average near 1,200 and peak May–June climatology still ahead, current trends align with a total well above 1,250 by year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько торнадо в США в 2026 году?
Сколько торнадо в США в 2026 году?
1250+ 81%
1050–1099 4.6%
<950 4.3%
950–999 4.1%
$72,103 Объем
$72,103 Объем
10 янв. 2027 г.
<950
4%
950–999
4%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
5%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
1%
1200–1249
26%
1250+
81%
1250+ 81%
1050–1099 4.6%
<950 4.3%
950–999 4.1%
$72,103 Объем
$72,103 Объем
10 янв. 2027 г.
<950
$22,427 Объем
4%
950–999
$2,966 Объем
4%
1000–1049
$2,424 Объем
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 Объем
5%
1100–1149
$2,041 Объем
3%
1150–1199
$2,551 Объем
1%
1200–1249
$15,173 Объем
26%
1250+
$16,681 Объем
81%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated early-season tornado activity across the central and southeastern U.S. has positioned the 1,250+ outcome as the clear market leader. Through mid-May 2026, the Storm Prediction Center has confirmed roughly 560 tornadoes, exceeding the typical year-to-date pace by 30–40 percent and featuring multiple EF2–EF4 events, including the April 23 Enid, Oklahoma EF4. This surge stems from repeated high-shear, high-instability setups in March and April, with notable outbreaks on March 6–10 and April 17. Given a long-term annual average near 1,200 and peak May–June climatology still ahead, current trends align with a total well above 1,250 by year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Открытие рынка: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Объем
$72,103Дата окончания
10 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated early-season tornado activity across the central and southeastern U.S. has positioned the 1,250+ outcome as the clear market leader. Through mid-May 2026, the Storm Prediction Center has confirmed roughly 560 tornadoes, exceeding the typical year-to-date pace by 30–40 percent and featuring multiple EF2–EF4 events, including the April 23 Enid, Oklahoma EF4. This surge stems from repeated high-shear, high-instability setups in March and April, with notable outbreaks on March 6–10 and April 17. Given a long-term annual average near 1,200 and peak May–June climatology still ahead, current trends align with a total well above 1,250 by year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Объем
$72,103Дата окончания
10 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated early-season tornado activity across the central and southeastern U.S. has positioned the 1,250+ outcome as the clear market leader. Through mid-May 2026, the Storm Prediction Center has confirmed roughly 560 tornadoes, exceeding the typical year-to-date pace by 30–40 percent and featuring multiple EF2–EF4 events, including the April 23 Enid, Oklahoma EF4. This surge stems from repeated high-shear, high-instability setups in March and April, with notable outbreaks on March 6–10 and April 17. Given a long-term annual average near 1,200 and peak May–June climatology still ahead, current trends align with a total well above 1,250 by year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы