**Market-implied odds favor a narrow range around 29–30°C for Tokyo’s August 16 maximum, reflecting tight clustering in short-range numerical weather models.** The Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles currently project daytime highs near or slightly above the long-term August normal of ~31°C, driven by persistent influence of the strengthened Pacific High that has delivered above-normal temperatures across Honshu this summer. Subtle differences between 29°C and 30°C hinge on forecast details such as the exact timing and coverage of any scattered afternoon showers, boundary-layer mixing depth, and local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C in central Tokyo districts. With resolution only two days away, traders are weighting the latest JMA and ECMWF runs most heavily; any shift in the 12–36-hour guidance on cloud cover or wind could quickly tip the balance between the two leading outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Токио 16 августа?
Самая высокая температура в Токио 16 августа?
30°C 40%
29°C 37%
28°C 12%
31°C 9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 авг. 2026 г.
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
12%
29°C
37%
30°C
40%
31°C
9%
32°C
4%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 40%
29°C 37%
28°C 12%
31°C 9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 авг. 2026 г.
24°C or below
$882 Объем
<1%
25°C
$310 Объем
<1%
26°C
$319 Объем
1%
27°C
$919 Объем
4%
28°C
$622 Объем
12%
29°C
$1,908 Объем
37%
30°C
$2,389 Объем
40%
31°C
$485 Объем
9%
32°C
$1,170 Объем
4%
33°C
$589 Объем
2%
34°C or higher
$205 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor a narrow range around 29–30°C for Tokyo’s August 16 maximum, reflecting tight clustering in short-range numerical weather models.** The Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles currently project daytime highs near or slightly above the long-term August normal of ~31°C, driven by persistent influence of the strengthened Pacific High that has delivered above-normal temperatures across Honshu this summer. Subtle differences between 29°C and 30°C hinge on forecast details such as the exact timing and coverage of any scattered afternoon showers, boundary-layer mixing depth, and local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C in central Tokyo districts. With resolution only two days away, traders are weighting the latest JMA and ECMWF runs most heavily; any shift in the 12–36-hour guidance on cloud cover or wind could quickly tip the balance between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Объем
$8,891Дата окончания
16 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor a narrow range around 29–30°C for Tokyo’s August 16 maximum, reflecting tight clustering in short-range numerical weather models.** The Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles currently project daytime highs near or slightly above the long-term August normal of ~31°C, driven by persistent influence of the strengthened Pacific High that has delivered above-normal temperatures across Honshu this summer. Subtle differences between 29°C and 30°C hinge on forecast details such as the exact timing and coverage of any scattered afternoon showers, boundary-layer mixing depth, and local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C in central Tokyo districts. With resolution only two days away, traders are weighting the latest JMA and ECMWF runs most heavily; any shift in the 12–36-hour guidance on cloud cover or wind could quickly tip the balance between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$8,891Дата окончания
16 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds favor a narrow range around 29–30°C for Tokyo’s August 16 maximum, reflecting tight clustering in short-range numerical weather models.** The Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles currently project daytime highs near or slightly above the long-term August normal of ~31°C, driven by persistent influence of the strengthened Pacific High that has delivered above-normal temperatures across Honshu this summer. Subtle differences between 29°C and 30°C hinge on forecast details such as the exact timing and coverage of any scattered afternoon showers, boundary-layer mixing depth, and local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C in central Tokyo districts. With resolution only two days away, traders are weighting the latest JMA and ECMWF runs most heavily; any shift in the 12–36-hour guidance on cloud cover or wind could quickly tip the balance between the two leading outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы