The overwhelming trader consensus favoring no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 reflects comprehensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA and partner agencies, which have cataloged nearly all asteroids larger than 140 meters that could produce such yields. Current orbital data show no known objects on Earth-intersecting trajectories through the end of the year, consistent with historical impact rates for bolides releasing megaton-scale energy occurring roughly once every several centuries. While undiscovered long-period comets or very small, fast-moving fragments could theoretically evade detection until atmospheric entry, existing radar, optical, and infrared monitoring networks make this scenario highly improbable. Ongoing survey updates and any new detections remain the key variables that could still shift the low residual risk.