No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of “Yes” near 26%. Historical bolide records indicate such events from meter-scale impactors occur on roughly annual timescales, though catalogued NEOs show zero significant risk this year and recent fireballs, including those over Cleveland and Massachusetts, have remained well below the 5 kt threshold. Ongoing surveys could still detect previously unknown small objects, but current orbital data and the absence of elevated activity sustain trader consensus toward resolution as “No.”
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$309,036 Объем
$309,036 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
$309,036 Объем
$309,036 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of “Yes” near 26%. Historical bolide records indicate such events from meter-scale impactors occur on roughly annual timescales, though catalogued NEOs show zero significant risk this year and recent fireballs, including those over Cleveland and Massachusetts, have remained well below the 5 kt threshold. Ongoing surveys could still detect previously unknown small objects, but current orbital data and the absence of elevated activity sustain trader consensus toward resolution as “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Объем
$309,036Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of “Yes” near 26%. Historical bolide records indicate such events from meter-scale impactors occur on roughly annual timescales, though catalogued NEOs show zero significant risk this year and recent fireballs, including those over Cleveland and Massachusetts, have remained well below the 5 kt threshold. Ongoing surveys could still detect previously unknown small objects, but current orbital data and the absence of elevated activity sustain trader consensus toward resolution as “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$309,036Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of “Yes” near 26%. Historical bolide records indicate such events from meter-scale impactors occur on roughly annual timescales, though catalogued NEOs show zero significant risk this year and recent fireballs, including those over Cleveland and Massachusetts, have remained well below the 5 kt threshold. Ongoing surveys could still detect previously unknown small objects, but current orbital data and the absence of elevated activity sustain trader consensus toward resolution as “No.”
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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