No 5kt bolide has occurred through mid-May 2026 despite a statistically notable Q1 surge in reported fireballs, keeping the implied probability of “No” near 69 percent. NASA’s CNEOS fireball database records only sub-kiloton events, with the largest (March 17 over Ohio) at roughly 0.25 kt; Sentry and infrasound networks show no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of 5 kt yields. Such strikes arise from meter-scale, still-undetected asteroids that historically reach 5 kt roughly 0.2–0.5 times per year, consistent with the current market consensus. Monitoring continues through year-end via expanded satellite and ground-sensor coverage, with any new large-witness bolide or revised energy estimate the only near-term factor that could shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
Да
$300,045 Объем
$300,045 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$300,045 Объем
$300,045 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No 5kt bolide has occurred through mid-May 2026 despite a statistically notable Q1 surge in reported fireballs, keeping the implied probability of “No” near 69 percent. NASA’s CNEOS fireball database records only sub-kiloton events, with the largest (March 17 over Ohio) at roughly 0.25 kt; Sentry and infrasound networks show no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of 5 kt yields. Such strikes arise from meter-scale, still-undetected asteroids that historically reach 5 kt roughly 0.2–0.5 times per year, consistent with the current market consensus. Monitoring continues through year-end via expanded satellite and ground-sensor coverage, with any new large-witness bolide or revised energy estimate the only near-term factor that could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Объем
$300,045Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No 5kt bolide has occurred through mid-May 2026 despite a statistically notable Q1 surge in reported fireballs, keeping the implied probability of “No” near 69 percent. NASA’s CNEOS fireball database records only sub-kiloton events, with the largest (March 17 over Ohio) at roughly 0.25 kt; Sentry and infrasound networks show no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of 5 kt yields. Such strikes arise from meter-scale, still-undetected asteroids that historically reach 5 kt roughly 0.2–0.5 times per year, consistent with the current market consensus. Monitoring continues through year-end via expanded satellite and ground-sensor coverage, with any new large-witness bolide or revised energy estimate the only near-term factor that could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$300,045Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No 5kt bolide has occurred through mid-May 2026 despite a statistically notable Q1 surge in reported fireballs, keeping the implied probability of “No” near 69 percent. NASA’s CNEOS fireball database records only sub-kiloton events, with the largest (March 17 over Ohio) at roughly 0.25 kt; Sentry and infrasound networks show no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of 5 kt yields. Such strikes arise from meter-scale, still-undetected asteroids that historically reach 5 kt roughly 0.2–0.5 times per year, consistent with the current market consensus. Monitoring continues through year-end via expanded satellite and ground-sensor coverage, with any new large-witness bolide or revised energy estimate the only near-term factor that could shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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