The market's heavy weighting toward zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 reflects the historically low global frequency of such events, which occur on average fewer than once per year according to long-term Smithsonian and USGS records. As of mid-May 2026, official monitoring shows ongoing activity at volcanoes including Semeru and Sheveluch, yet none have produced confirmed ejecta volumes meeting the VEI 4 threshold of at least 0.1 km³. Potential catalysts include heightened seismicity at Axial Seamount and possible unrest at Iwo Jima, but current USGS and Smithsonian data indicate no rapid escalation toward larger explosive phases. Upcoming weekly volcanic activity reports will clarify whether any ongoing plumes or pyroclastic flows reach the necessary scale for market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько крупных извержений вулканов (VEI ≥4) в 2026 году?
Сколько крупных извержений вулканов (VEI ≥4) в 2026 году?
0 59%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 1.4%
$1,078,173 Объем
$1,078,173 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0
59%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 59%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 1.4%
$1,078,173 Объем
$1,078,173 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0
$477,262 Объем
59%
1
$260,191 Объем
35%
2
$32,241 Объем
4%
3
$26,075 Объем
1%
4
$24,441 Объем
<1%
5+
$257,964 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The market's heavy weighting toward zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 reflects the historically low global frequency of such events, which occur on average fewer than once per year according to long-term Smithsonian and USGS records. As of mid-May 2026, official monitoring shows ongoing activity at volcanoes including Semeru and Sheveluch, yet none have produced confirmed ejecta volumes meeting the VEI 4 threshold of at least 0.1 km³. Potential catalysts include heightened seismicity at Axial Seamount and possible unrest at Iwo Jima, but current USGS and Smithsonian data indicate no rapid escalation toward larger explosive phases. Upcoming weekly volcanic activity reports will clarify whether any ongoing plumes or pyroclastic flows reach the necessary scale for market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Объем
$1,078,173Дата окончания
31 мар. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The market's heavy weighting toward zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 reflects the historically low global frequency of such events, which occur on average fewer than once per year according to long-term Smithsonian and USGS records. As of mid-May 2026, official monitoring shows ongoing activity at volcanoes including Semeru and Sheveluch, yet none have produced confirmed ejecta volumes meeting the VEI 4 threshold of at least 0.1 km³. Potential catalysts include heightened seismicity at Axial Seamount and possible unrest at Iwo Jima, but current USGS and Smithsonian data indicate no rapid escalation toward larger explosive phases. Upcoming weekly volcanic activity reports will clarify whether any ongoing plumes or pyroclastic flows reach the necessary scale for market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Объем
$1,078,173Дата окончания
31 мар. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The market's heavy weighting toward zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 reflects the historically low global frequency of such events, which occur on average fewer than once per year according to long-term Smithsonian and USGS records. As of mid-May 2026, official monitoring shows ongoing activity at volcanoes including Semeru and Sheveluch, yet none have produced confirmed ejecta volumes meeting the VEI 4 threshold of at least 0.1 km³. Potential catalysts include heightened seismicity at Axial Seamount and possible unrest at Iwo Jima, but current USGS and Smithsonian data indicate no rapid escalation toward larger explosive phases. Upcoming weekly volcanic activity reports will clarify whether any ongoing plumes or pyroclastic flows reach the necessary scale for market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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