Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability for no major volcanic eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, driven by the absence of any such event through mid-May despite 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program—none exceeding VEI 4, like pyroclastic flows at Semeru and Fuego. USGS monitoring shows elevated activity at sites like Great Sitkin (ORANGE alert) and ongoing Icelandic magma buildup at Svartsengi, but no precursors indicate Plinian-scale explosivity, which historically occurs roughly once per century (last: Pinatubo 1991). With half the year elapsed and no escalations, this rarity underpins strong conviction. Realistic challenges include unforeseen rapid pressurization at supervolcanoes like Yellowstone or Campi Flegrei, though seismic and deformation data show no such signals; weekly USGS and GVP updates remain key.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКрупное извержение вулкана (VEI ≥6) в 2026 году?
Крупное извержение вулкана (VEI ≥6) в 2026 году?
Да
$79,911 Объем
$79,911 Объем
31 мар. 2027 г.
Да
$79,911 Объем
$79,911 Объем
31 мар. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability for no major volcanic eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, driven by the absence of any such event through mid-May despite 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program—none exceeding VEI 4, like pyroclastic flows at Semeru and Fuego. USGS monitoring shows elevated activity at sites like Great Sitkin (ORANGE alert) and ongoing Icelandic magma buildup at Svartsengi, but no precursors indicate Plinian-scale explosivity, which historically occurs roughly once per century (last: Pinatubo 1991). With half the year elapsed and no escalations, this rarity underpins strong conviction. Realistic challenges include unforeseen rapid pressurization at supervolcanoes like Yellowstone or Campi Flegrei, though seismic and deformation data show no such signals; weekly USGS and GVP updates remain key.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Объем
$79,911Дата окончания
31 мар. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability for no major volcanic eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, driven by the absence of any such event through mid-May despite 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program—none exceeding VEI 4, like pyroclastic flows at Semeru and Fuego. USGS monitoring shows elevated activity at sites like Great Sitkin (ORANGE alert) and ongoing Icelandic magma buildup at Svartsengi, but no precursors indicate Plinian-scale explosivity, which historically occurs roughly once per century (last: Pinatubo 1991). With half the year elapsed and no escalations, this rarity underpins strong conviction. Realistic challenges include unforeseen rapid pressurization at supervolcanoes like Yellowstone or Campi Flegrei, though seismic and deformation data show no such signals; weekly USGS and GVP updates remain key.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Объем
$79,911Дата окончания
31 мар. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability for no major volcanic eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, driven by the absence of any such event through mid-May despite 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program—none exceeding VEI 4, like pyroclastic flows at Semeru and Fuego. USGS monitoring shows elevated activity at sites like Great Sitkin (ORANGE alert) and ongoing Icelandic magma buildup at Svartsengi, but no precursors indicate Plinian-scale explosivity, which historically occurs roughly once per century (last: Pinatubo 1991). With half the year elapsed and no escalations, this rarity underpins strong conviction. Realistic challenges include unforeseen rapid pressurization at supervolcanoes like Yellowstone or Campi Flegrei, though seismic and deformation data show no such signals; weekly USGS and GVP updates remain key.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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