Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in U.S. livestock, horses, and pets since the first confirmed case in a Texas calf on June 3, 2026, have driven trader focus on whether a federal national emergency declaration will follow state-level actions. The parasite causes myiasis by larvae burrowing into living tissue of warm-blooded animals, with historical U.S. outbreaks eradicated in the 1960s through sterile insect technique; the current incursion stems from northward spread beyond Panama's barrier zone since 2023, reaching Mexico and the border. As of mid-September 2026, USDA-APHIS reports roughly 48–49 total confirmed cases with only three active, alongside expanded surveillance, quarantines, over a billion sterile flies released, and FDA emergency use authorizations for animal treatments issued after the August 2025 HHS determination of significant public health emergency potential. Texas renewed its statewide disaster proclamation in September 2026 while New Mexico issued livestock emergency measures; upcoming port reopenings for Mexican cattle and ongoing model-driven surveillance updates could shift odds if case counts rise or spread accelerates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоScrewworm National Emergency declared by...?
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 октября
44%
December 31
46%
$1,880 Объем
31 октября
$13 Объем
44%
December 31
$0 Объем
46%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in U.S. livestock, horses, and pets since the first confirmed case in a Texas calf on June 3, 2026, have driven trader focus on whether a federal national emergency declaration will follow state-level actions. The parasite causes myiasis by larvae burrowing into living tissue of warm-blooded animals, with historical U.S. outbreaks eradicated in the 1960s through sterile insect technique; the current incursion stems from northward spread beyond Panama's barrier zone since 2023, reaching Mexico and the border. As of mid-September 2026, USDA-APHIS reports roughly 48–49 total confirmed cases with only three active, alongside expanded surveillance, quarantines, over a billion sterile flies released, and FDA emergency use authorizations for animal treatments issued after the August 2025 HHS determination of significant public health emergency potential. Texas renewed its statewide disaster proclamation in September 2026 while New Mexico issued livestock emergency measures; upcoming port reopenings for Mexican cattle and ongoing model-driven surveillance updates could shift odds if case counts rise or spread accelerates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Объем
$1,880Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in U.S. livestock, horses, and pets since the first confirmed case in a Texas calf on June 3, 2026, have driven trader focus on whether a federal national emergency declaration will follow state-level actions. The parasite causes myiasis by larvae burrowing into living tissue of warm-blooded animals, with historical U.S. outbreaks eradicated in the 1960s through sterile insect technique; the current incursion stems from northward spread beyond Panama's barrier zone since 2023, reaching Mexico and the border. As of mid-September 2026, USDA-APHIS reports roughly 48–49 total confirmed cases with only three active, alongside expanded surveillance, quarantines, over a billion sterile flies released, and FDA emergency use authorizations for animal treatments issued after the August 2025 HHS determination of significant public health emergency potential. Texas renewed its statewide disaster proclamation in September 2026 while New Mexico issued livestock emergency measures; upcoming port reopenings for Mexican cattle and ongoing model-driven surveillance updates could shift odds if case counts rise or spread accelerates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$1,880Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in U.S. livestock, horses, and pets since the first confirmed case in a Texas calf on June 3, 2026, have driven trader focus on whether a federal national emergency declaration will follow state-level actions. The parasite causes myiasis by larvae burrowing into living tissue of warm-blooded animals, with historical U.S. outbreaks eradicated in the 1960s through sterile insect technique; the current incursion stems from northward spread beyond Panama's barrier zone since 2023, reaching Mexico and the border. As of mid-September 2026, USDA-APHIS reports roughly 48–49 total confirmed cases with only three active, alongside expanded surveillance, quarantines, over a billion sterile flies released, and FDA emergency use authorizations for animal treatments issued after the August 2025 HHS determination of significant public health emergency potential. Texas renewed its statewide disaster proclamation in September 2026 while New Mexico issued livestock emergency measures; upcoming port reopenings for Mexican cattle and ongoing model-driven surveillance updates could shift odds if case counts rise or spread accelerates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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