Strong El Niño conditions have driven the market's near-certain consensus that no Atlantic hurricane formed in August 2026. Persistent high wind shear, dry mid-level air, and suppressed convection across the main development region prevented the four named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly—from intensifying beyond tropical storm strength, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center analyses through August 31. This marks one of the quietest starts in decades, with accumulated cyclone energy running roughly 90% below the 1991-2020 average. Historical analogs show first hurricanes typically arrive by mid-August, but similar El Niño years have delayed formation into September. A rapid weakening of the El Niño or an unusually favorable September wave could still allow an early hurricane, though current NOAA forecasts indicate continued suppression through mid-month.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКогда в 2026 году в Атлантике сформируется первый ураган?
Когда в 2026 году в Атлантике сформируется первый ураган?
В Атлантике не сформируется ни один ураган в августе 2026 года 100.0%
13 августа — 16 августа 2026 года <1%
17–21 августа 2026 года <1%
22 августа — 26 августа 2026 года <1%
$17,690 Объем
$17,690 Объем
16 авг. 2026 г.
13 августа — 16 августа 2026 года
Нет
17–21 августа 2026 года
Нет
22 августа — 26 августа 2026 года
Нет
27 августа — 31 августа 2026 года
Нет
В Атлантике не сформируется ни один ураган в августе 2026 года
Да
В Атлантике не сформируется ни один ураган в августе 2026 года 100.0%
13 августа — 16 августа 2026 года <1%
17–21 августа 2026 года <1%
22 августа — 26 августа 2026 года <1%
$17,690 Объем
$17,690 Объем
16 авг. 2026 г.
13 августа — 16 августа 2026 года
$427 Объем
Нет
17–21 августа 2026 года
$383 Объем
Нет
22 августа — 26 августа 2026 года
$1,414 Объем
Нет
27 августа — 31 августа 2026 года
$3,398 Объем
Нет
В Атлантике не сформируется ни один ураган в августе 2026 года
$12,067 Объем
Да
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Strong El Niño conditions have driven the market's near-certain consensus that no Atlantic hurricane formed in August 2026. Persistent high wind shear, dry mid-level air, and suppressed convection across the main development region prevented the four named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly—from intensifying beyond tropical storm strength, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center analyses through August 31. This marks one of the quietest starts in decades, with accumulated cyclone energy running roughly 90% below the 1991-2020 average. Historical analogs show first hurricanes typically arrive by mid-August, but similar El Niño years have delayed formation into September. A rapid weakening of the El Niño or an unusually favorable September wave could still allow an early hurricane, though current NOAA forecasts indicate continued suppression through mid-month.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Открытие рынка: Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
Объем
$17,690Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Strong El Niño conditions have driven the market's near-certain consensus that no Atlantic hurricane formed in August 2026. Persistent high wind shear, dry mid-level air, and suppressed convection across the main development region prevented the four named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly—from intensifying beyond tropical storm strength, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center analyses through August 31. This marks one of the quietest starts in decades, with accumulated cyclone energy running roughly 90% below the 1991-2020 average. Historical analogs show first hurricanes typically arrive by mid-August, but similar El Niño years have delayed formation into September. A rapid weakening of the El Niño or an unusually favorable September wave could still allow an early hurricane, though current NOAA forecasts indicate continued suppression through mid-month.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Объем
$17,690Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Strong El Niño conditions have driven the market's near-certain consensus that no Atlantic hurricane formed in August 2026. Persistent high wind shear, dry mid-level air, and suppressed convection across the main development region prevented the four named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly—from intensifying beyond tropical storm strength, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center analyses through August 31. This marks one of the quietest starts in decades, with accumulated cyclone energy running roughly 90% below the 1991-2020 average. Historical analogs show first hurricanes typically arrive by mid-August, but similar El Niño years have delayed formation into September. A rapid weakening of the El Niño or an unusually favorable September wave could still allow an early hurricane, though current NOAA forecasts indicate continued suppression through mid-month.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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