Trader consensus for no change in the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026, at 76.5% implied probability, reflects the clock's reliance on stable carbon budget estimates from the IPCC AR6 and Mercator Research Institute, which project exhaustion around mid-2029 at current ~42 GtCO2 annual emission rates. Global emissions reached record levels in 2024–2025 with only modest upward trends, insufficient to trigger a recalculation under the model's assumptions of linear cumulative warming relationships and fixed remaining budgets. No new major IPCC reports or Global Carbon Project revisions are scheduled before year-end, limiting near-term shifts despite accelerating observed warming. The deadline moves only with substantive updates to emission trajectories or budget methodologies, which typically occur annually rather than quarterly.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИзменится ли крайний срок климатических часов на 1,5°C на...?
Изменится ли крайний срок климатических часов на 1,5°C на...?
24% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 янв. 2027 г.
24% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 янв. 2027 г.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Trader consensus for no change in the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026, at 76.5% implied probability, reflects the clock's reliance on stable carbon budget estimates from the IPCC AR6 and Mercator Research Institute, which project exhaustion around mid-2029 at current ~42 GtCO2 annual emission rates. Global emissions reached record levels in 2024–2025 with only modest upward trends, insufficient to trigger a recalculation under the model's assumptions of linear cumulative warming relationships and fixed remaining budgets. No new major IPCC reports or Global Carbon Project revisions are scheduled before year-end, limiting near-term shifts despite accelerating observed warming. The deadline moves only with substantive updates to emission trajectories or budget methodologies, which typically occur annually rather than quarterly.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Открытие рынка: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Объем
$3,474Дата окончания
31 дек. 2029 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Trader consensus for no change in the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026, at 76.5% implied probability, reflects the clock's reliance on stable carbon budget estimates from the IPCC AR6 and Mercator Research Institute, which project exhaustion around mid-2029 at current ~42 GtCO2 annual emission rates. Global emissions reached record levels in 2024–2025 with only modest upward trends, insufficient to trigger a recalculation under the model's assumptions of linear cumulative warming relationships and fixed remaining budgets. No new major IPCC reports or Global Carbon Project revisions are scheduled before year-end, limiting near-term shifts despite accelerating observed warming. The deadline moves only with substantive updates to emission trajectories or budget methodologies, which typically occur annually rather than quarterly.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Объем
$3,474Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus for no change in the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026, at 76.5% implied probability, reflects the clock's reliance on stable carbon budget estimates from the IPCC AR6 and Mercator Research Institute, which project exhaustion around mid-2029 at current ~42 GtCO2 annual emission rates. Global emissions reached record levels in 2024–2025 with only modest upward trends, insufficient to trigger a recalculation under the model's assumptions of linear cumulative warming relationships and fixed remaining budgets. No new major IPCC reports or Global Carbon Project revisions are scheduled before year-end, limiting near-term shifts despite accelerating observed warming. The deadline moves only with substantive updates to emission trajectories or budget methodologies, which typically occur annually rather than quarterly.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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