Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at about 40 mph sustained winds near 12°N 151°E in the western Pacific, sits in an environment poised for significant strengthening. Forecast guidance highlights easing vertical wind shear below 10 knots, traversal over elevated ocean heat content, and development of a poleward outflow channel tied to an upper-level trough, all favoring axisymmetrization and rapid intensification potential after the next 12 hours. Official agencies including JMA and JTWC project steady gains, with intensity aids showing high probabilities of substantial wind increases over three days. However, exact peak intensity hinges on precise timing of these factors, track proximity to land or shear gradients, and model spread in outflow and moisture profiles, producing the near-even market-implied odds across JMA-defined strength thresholds from tropical storm through violent typhoon categories. Updated model runs and satellite reconnaissance over the coming 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of any peak.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНасколько сильным будет тропический шторм «Саудел»?
Насколько сильным будет тропический шторм «Саудел»?
Очень сильный тайфун 65%
Тайфун 48%
Яростный тайфун 46%
Сильный тропический шторм 29%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 авг. 2026 г.
Тропический шторм
25%
Сильный тропический шторм
29%
Тайфун
48%
Очень сильный тайфун
65%
Яростный тайфун
46%
Очень сильный тайфун 65%
Тайфун 48%
Яростный тайфун 46%
Сильный тропический шторм 29%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 авг. 2026 г.
Тропический шторм
$10 Объем
25%
Сильный тропический шторм
$10 Объем
29%
Тайфун
$10 Объем
48%
Очень сильный тайфун
$10 Объем
65%
Яростный тайфун
$10 Объем
46%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at about 40 mph sustained winds near 12°N 151°E in the western Pacific, sits in an environment poised for significant strengthening. Forecast guidance highlights easing vertical wind shear below 10 knots, traversal over elevated ocean heat content, and development of a poleward outflow channel tied to an upper-level trough, all favoring axisymmetrization and rapid intensification potential after the next 12 hours. Official agencies including JMA and JTWC project steady gains, with intensity aids showing high probabilities of substantial wind increases over three days. However, exact peak intensity hinges on precise timing of these factors, track proximity to land or shear gradients, and model spread in outflow and moisture profiles, producing the near-even market-implied odds across JMA-defined strength thresholds from tropical storm through violent typhoon categories. Updated model runs and satellite reconnaissance over the coming 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of any peak.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Объем
$50Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at about 40 mph sustained winds near 12°N 151°E in the western Pacific, sits in an environment poised for significant strengthening. Forecast guidance highlights easing vertical wind shear below 10 knots, traversal over elevated ocean heat content, and development of a poleward outflow channel tied to an upper-level trough, all favoring axisymmetrization and rapid intensification potential after the next 12 hours. Official agencies including JMA and JTWC project steady gains, with intensity aids showing high probabilities of substantial wind increases over three days. However, exact peak intensity hinges on precise timing of these factors, track proximity to land or shear gradients, and model spread in outflow and moisture profiles, producing the near-even market-implied odds across JMA-defined strength thresholds from tropical storm through violent typhoon categories. Updated model runs and satellite reconnaissance over the coming 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of any peak.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Объем
$50Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at about 40 mph sustained winds near 12°N 151°E in the western Pacific, sits in an environment poised for significant strengthening. Forecast guidance highlights easing vertical wind shear below 10 knots, traversal over elevated ocean heat content, and development of a poleward outflow channel tied to an upper-level trough, all favoring axisymmetrization and rapid intensification potential after the next 12 hours. Official agencies including JMA and JTWC project steady gains, with intensity aids showing high probabilities of substantial wind increases over three days. However, exact peak intensity hinges on precise timing of these factors, track proximity to land or shear gradients, and model spread in outflow and moisture profiles, producing the near-even market-implied odds across JMA-defined strength thresholds from tropical storm through violent typhoon categories. Updated model runs and satellite reconnaissance over the coming 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of any peak.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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