Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid August 18 show exceptional (D4) drought covering about 0.9% of the contiguous United States, concentrated in portions of Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and adjacent Northern Plains and Western states amid prolonged below-normal precipitation and elevated temperatures. A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, introduces forecast uncertainty as short-term models diverge on whether above-normal rainfall will arrive in time to ease conditions before the August 25–29 period. The closely matched market-implied odds around 45–49% across low single-digit state counts reflect this variability in precipitation timing, model consensus, and the precise geographic thresholds used by the U.S. Drought Monitor for D4 classification. The next weekly update, expected August 27, will provide the decisive observational data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?
3-4 states 51%
5-6 states 51%
1-2 states 50%
7-9 states 47%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
27 авг. 2026 г.
0 states
46%
1-2 states
50%
3-4 states
51%
5-6 states
51%
7-9 states
47%
10 or more states
46%
3-4 states 51%
5-6 states 51%
1-2 states 50%
7-9 states 47%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
27 авг. 2026 г.
0 states
$0 Объем
46%
1-2 states
$0 Объем
50%
3-4 states
$0 Объем
51%
5-6 states
$0 Объем
51%
7-9 states
$0 Объем
47%
10 or more states
$0 Объем
46%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid August 18 show exceptional (D4) drought covering about 0.9% of the contiguous United States, concentrated in portions of Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and adjacent Northern Plains and Western states amid prolonged below-normal precipitation and elevated temperatures. A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, introduces forecast uncertainty as short-term models diverge on whether above-normal rainfall will arrive in time to ease conditions before the August 25–29 period. The closely matched market-implied odds around 45–49% across low single-digit state counts reflect this variability in precipitation timing, model consensus, and the precise geographic thresholds used by the U.S. Drought Monitor for D4 classification. The next weekly update, expected August 27, will provide the decisive observational data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
27 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 9:00 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid August 18 show exceptional (D4) drought covering about 0.9% of the contiguous United States, concentrated in portions of Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and adjacent Northern Plains and Western states amid prolonged below-normal precipitation and elevated temperatures. A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, introduces forecast uncertainty as short-term models diverge on whether above-normal rainfall will arrive in time to ease conditions before the August 25–29 period. The closely matched market-implied odds around 45–49% across low single-digit state counts reflect this variability in precipitation timing, model consensus, and the precise geographic thresholds used by the U.S. Drought Monitor for D4 classification. The next weekly update, expected August 27, will provide the decisive observational data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
27 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 9:00 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid August 18 show exceptional (D4) drought covering about 0.9% of the contiguous United States, concentrated in portions of Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and adjacent Northern Plains and Western states amid prolonged below-normal precipitation and elevated temperatures. A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, introduces forecast uncertainty as short-term models diverge on whether above-normal rainfall will arrive in time to ease conditions before the August 25–29 period. The closely matched market-implied odds around 45–49% across low single-digit state counts reflect this variability in precipitation timing, model consensus, and the precise geographic thresholds used by the U.S. Drought Monitor for D4 classification. The next weekly update, expected August 27, will provide the decisive observational data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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