**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including ECMWF, GFS-influenced models, and local analyses, point to a minimum temperature of roughly 3–5°C (about 37–41°F) overnight into August 22 in Buenos Aires under clear to partly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate westerly winds.** These conditions favor moderate radiative cooling after a recent southerly flow that lowered daytime highs but did not deliver an extreme polar air mass. Historical climatology for late August shows typical lows near 9–11°C, so the current pattern represents a cooler-than-average but not anomalous setup. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds heavily favors outcomes at or above 1°C (49%) or near 0°C (31%), consistent with the narrow forecast envelope and limited model spread. Sub-zero probabilities decline sharply because achieving those would require either substantially stronger nocturnal cooling than modeled or an unforecasted shift in steering winds—scenarios viewed as low-probability given stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover. Key resolution factors include the official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) minimum reading for the 24-hour period ending August 22, with any late model runs or observational adjustments able to influence final positioning before markets close.