Official Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts for the Seoul-Incheon region on August 22 project a daytime maximum near 31°C under variable cloud cover and a 30-60% chance of showers, yet ensemble guidance and climatological analogs for late August indicate that reduced solar insolation from moisture and clouds will likely limit the realized high to the 28-30°C range. High humidity, light winds, and typical seasonal baseline temperatures of 30-31°C further compress probabilities around these values, as traders weigh the gap between model maxima and observed outcomes in similar synoptic setups. Short-term model updates and any shifts in precipitation timing remain key near-term catalysts.