Recent global seismicity shows elevated rates following multiple magnitude 7+ events in Indonesia, Colombia, and elsewhere during August 2026, with USGS data confirming roughly 11 magnitude 7+ quakes year-to-date near the long-term annual average of 15–20. Worldwide, magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes typically average 10–15 per week under background tectonic conditions driven by plate boundaries, particularly subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire, though weekly counts exhibit high Poisson variability. Trader consensus, with ≤6 at 24% implied probability and >13 at 15.5%, reflects this uncertainty alongside ongoing aftershock potential from recent large ruptures, absent any new foreshock swarms or major stress transfers detectable by USGS monitoring ahead of the August 24–30 window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько 5,5 и выше землетрясений по всему миру 24 августа - 30 августа?
≤6 24%
более 13 16%
9 12%
7 11%
≤6
24%
7
11%
8
11%
9
12%
10
9%
11
9%
12
6%
13
5%
более 13
16%
≤6 24%
более 13 16%
9 12%
7 11%
≤6
24%
7
11%
8
11%
9
12%
10
9%
11
9%
12
6%
13
5%
более 13
16%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Открытие рынка: Aug 21, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Источник определения исхода
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global seismicity shows elevated rates following multiple magnitude 7+ events in Indonesia, Colombia, and elsewhere during August 2026, with USGS data confirming roughly 11 magnitude 7+ quakes year-to-date near the long-term annual average of 15–20. Worldwide, magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes typically average 10–15 per week under background tectonic conditions driven by plate boundaries, particularly subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire, though weekly counts exhibit high Poisson variability. Trader consensus, with ≤6 at 24% implied probability and >13 at 15.5%, reflects this uncertainty alongside ongoing aftershock potential from recent large ruptures, absent any new foreshock swarms or major stress transfers detectable by USGS monitoring ahead of the August 24–30 window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено

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